$VST current price 155.74, the past 24 hours rose by 2.051%. This increase isn’t that big in on-chain US stock futures contracts, but the underlying structure is kind of interesting.
The funding rate is 0.00003483, which is positive—longs are paying shorts. As the price is rising and the funding rate is positive, this usually means the chasing longs are accumulating costs; every 8 hours, a funding payment is made. Open interest (OI) is 4876.69. I can’t directly say whether it’s high or low because no dollar-denominated traded volume is provided for comparison. But considering the funding rate, at this level, longs who want to push higher will have to keep paying, so resistance will keep increasing.
On the other hand, if the price goes sideways here or dips slightly, longs will still be paying the funding rate but won’t earn price-spread gains—patience will get worn down. The most dangerous scenario is a sudden downward spike, which easily triggers a chain reaction of stop-losses, squeezing out longs all at once.
I’m not planning to chase longs right now. Here’s a short-side trial position plan.
Direction: Short
Leverage: 10x
Stop loss: 158.50 (above the recent highs in the past few days)
Take profit: 150.00 (a whole-number level, also a prior small support)
Position size: 5% of total capital for a trial
Strong counter-proof: If you get a single big bullish candle breaking above 158.5, it means there is strong buy-side absorption that has covered all funding-rate costs, so the short logic fails—you should admit defeat and exit.
Second-order effect: Once the long stop-loss positions get hit, the price drop can accelerate, because the short-side funding cost becomes lower, and it may even turn negative—attracting more shorts. At that time, shorts get the cheap deal, while longs holding at high levels pay the price.
The invalidation condition for this trade signal judgment (mainly based on the divergence between funding rate and price) is when the price is strong enough to stand above 158.5 and hold.
Aggressive approach: Open a short directly around the current price 155.7, increasing the position to 8%.
Conservative approach: Wait for the price to rebound into the 157–158 range before entering a short, with the position size reduced to 3%.
Avoidance approach: Don’t touch it—wait until the funding rate turns negative or price breaks above 158.5 on increased volume.
The market always feels that if it’s going up, it must be good. But chasing longs at this positive-funding-rate position is basically paying wages to the people who went first. I’m doing the opposite.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #VST
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?
The funding rate is 0.00003483, which is positive—longs are paying shorts. As the price is rising and the funding rate is positive, this usually means the chasing longs are accumulating costs; every 8 hours, a funding payment is made. Open interest (OI) is 4876.69. I can’t directly say whether it’s high or low because no dollar-denominated traded volume is provided for comparison. But considering the funding rate, at this level, longs who want to push higher will have to keep paying, so resistance will keep increasing.
On the other hand, if the price goes sideways here or dips slightly, longs will still be paying the funding rate but won’t earn price-spread gains—patience will get worn down. The most dangerous scenario is a sudden downward spike, which easily triggers a chain reaction of stop-losses, squeezing out longs all at once.
I’m not planning to chase longs right now. Here’s a short-side trial position plan.
Direction: Short
Leverage: 10x
Stop loss: 158.50 (above the recent highs in the past few days)
Take profit: 150.00 (a whole-number level, also a prior small support)
Position size: 5% of total capital for a trial
Strong counter-proof: If you get a single big bullish candle breaking above 158.5, it means there is strong buy-side absorption that has covered all funding-rate costs, so the short logic fails—you should admit defeat and exit.
Second-order effect: Once the long stop-loss positions get hit, the price drop can accelerate, because the short-side funding cost becomes lower, and it may even turn negative—attracting more shorts. At that time, shorts get the cheap deal, while longs holding at high levels pay the price.
The invalidation condition for this trade signal judgment (mainly based on the divergence between funding rate and price) is when the price is strong enough to stand above 158.5 and hold.
Aggressive approach: Open a short directly around the current price 155.7, increasing the position to 8%.
Conservative approach: Wait for the price to rebound into the 157–158 range before entering a short, with the position size reduced to 3%.
Avoidance approach: Don’t touch it—wait until the funding rate turns negative or price breaks above 158.5 on increased volume.
The market always feels that if it’s going up, it must be good. But chasing longs at this positive-funding-rate position is basically paying wages to the people who went first. I’m doing the opposite.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #VST
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?