According to the latest data released by the American Automobile Association (AAA), ahead of this year’s Labor Day, the national average gas price in the U.S. has surged to $4.14 per gallon, up nearly $1 year over year, and has significantly surpassed the historical high of $3.82 from the same period in 2012. This is also the first time that gas prices during Labor Day have broken through the $4 mark. Data from Brown University also shows that, due to the conflict in the Middle East, energy costs have driven U.S. households’ average additional spending to more than $741.
From a technical perspective and in terms of the macro cycle, energy prices often hit extremes before key holidays, which typically coincides with the peak of cyclical sentiment and supply premiums. Historical trends indicate that once crude oil and retail gasoline break through key round-number resistance levels, as the peak of holiday travel demand passes, momentum is likely to fade and a technical pullback often follows—helping to ease upward pressure on subsequent core inflation data.
For traditional financial markets, if the pulse-like topping of commodities gradually gives way to technical repair, it will effectively curb further upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index within key stress zones, creating conditions for macro liquidity to loosen. Pricing of inflation expectations in traditional assets is already relatively well accounted for. A pullback in oil prices after topping will serve as a technical catalyst for expectations of interest-rate cuts to strengthen.
For the crypto market, the marginal decrease in high inflation pressure is a positive signal for the recovery in risk appetite. As macro headwinds gradually clear, core assets such as $BTC may stabilize at key support levels and see liquidity return. If the market can confirm a breakout above the upper range of the current consolidation box, overall risk assets may begin a new round of rebound.📊
#通胀 #能源市场 #宏观流动性
From a technical perspective and in terms of the macro cycle, energy prices often hit extremes before key holidays, which typically coincides with the peak of cyclical sentiment and supply premiums. Historical trends indicate that once crude oil and retail gasoline break through key round-number resistance levels, as the peak of holiday travel demand passes, momentum is likely to fade and a technical pullback often follows—helping to ease upward pressure on subsequent core inflation data.
For traditional financial markets, if the pulse-like topping of commodities gradually gives way to technical repair, it will effectively curb further upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index within key stress zones, creating conditions for macro liquidity to loosen. Pricing of inflation expectations in traditional assets is already relatively well accounted for. A pullback in oil prices after topping will serve as a technical catalyst for expectations of interest-rate cuts to strengthen.
For the crypto market, the marginal decrease in high inflation pressure is a positive signal for the recovery in risk appetite. As macro headwinds gradually clear, core assets such as $BTC may stabilize at key support levels and see liquidity return. If the market can confirm a breakout above the upper range of the current consolidation box, overall risk assets may begin a new round of rebound.📊
#通胀 #能源市场 #宏观流动性