HOOD is currently priced at 124.76, down 2.088% over the past 24 hours. That doesn’t look like much, but the funding rate is negative at -0.00024330. The structure is very clear: shorts are paying, bearish sentiment is the dominant theme, but the price hasn’t really sold off much. Either shorts are too crowded and selling pressure is nearly exhausted, or there’s strong buying from large players absorbing supply underneath.
My view is mildly bearish here, but not blindly bearish. At this level, chasing a short directly could easily get hit by a sudden short squeeze. Shorts are paying carry, which means their time cost is high, but the price also hasn’t broken down enough, which suggests bulls are still defending. The most likely scenario next is: price chops in a narrow range, waiting until shorts can’t تحمل the funding cost anymore, or until a bearish catalyst appears, and then breaks down.
My plan is to wait for confirmation. If price can break below 120, I would consider the bullish defense fully failed, open a 5x short, set a stop-loss at 130, take profit at 110, and use 20% of my position size. If price first rebounds above 128, then the crowded-short logic gets invalidated, and I’ll stay out.
Trade tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #HOOD
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?
My view is mildly bearish here, but not blindly bearish. At this level, chasing a short directly could easily get hit by a sudden short squeeze. Shorts are paying carry, which means their time cost is high, but the price also hasn’t broken down enough, which suggests bulls are still defending. The most likely scenario next is: price chops in a narrow range, waiting until shorts can’t تحمل the funding cost anymore, or until a bearish catalyst appears, and then breaks down.
My plan is to wait for confirmation. If price can break below 120, I would consider the bullish defense fully failed, open a 5x short, set a stop-loss at 130, take profit at 110, and use 20% of my position size. If price first rebounds above 128, then the crowded-short logic gets invalidated, and I’ll stay out.
Trade tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #HOOD
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?