橙子Joyce
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橙子Joyce
Square Verified+价值投资者:以十年为单位投资美股及BTC.ETH.BNB.SOL.推特X:@Joyce88ai
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Underestimated Risks in the U.S. Midterm Elections?
The market is seriously underestimating the risk that the results of the U.S. midterm elections could be challenged, triggering political and legal disputes. At the same time, hedging costs on Wall Street have fallen to their lowest level of the year, and the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options for November has dropped below 15%, creating a low-cost window to buy protection early.
The probability that the election results could be disputed, or even spark political turmoil, is being severely underestimated by the market, and current pricing in the options market does not fully reflect this tail risk.
As the market calmed in August, the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options has fallen significantly from its July highs. The calmer the market, the cheaper protection becomes; but once election risk is truly priced into assets, volatility could rise rapidly, and the cost of hedging at that point would increase markedly.
The core logic is built on the current polling situation. Polls generally show Trump’s approval rating slipping, Democrats likely to regain control of the House, and Republicans expected to keep their Senate majority.
What the market is truly overlooking is not the election result itself, but the political and legal disputes that could emerge if the result is challenged. If the final outcome is unfavorable to Trump, the market is severely underestimating the likelihood that Trump would react strongly and challenge results in certain districts.
In that scenario, Trump may launch legal challenges to every “contested” district, delaying the certification process and triggering a wave of media coverage around disputes such as “what happens next” and claims that the election was “stolen.”
This political uncertainty could ultimately spill over into financial markets and drive volatility sharply higher. For markets, the most dangerous outcome is not necessarily that one side wins, but that the election result remains unconfirmed for an extended period, creating persistent uncertainty.
The market is seriously underestimating the risk that the results of the U.S. midterm elections could be challenged, triggering political and legal disputes. At the same time, hedging costs on Wall Street have fallen to their lowest level of the year, and the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options for November has dropped below 15%, creating a low-cost window to buy protection early.
The probability that the election results could be disputed, or even spark political turmoil, is being severely underestimated by the market, and current pricing in the options market does not fully reflect this tail risk.
As the market calmed in August, the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options has fallen significantly from its July highs. The calmer the market, the cheaper protection becomes; but once election risk is truly priced into assets, volatility could rise rapidly, and the cost of hedging at that point would increase markedly.
The core logic is built on the current polling situation. Polls generally show Trump’s approval rating slipping, Democrats likely to regain control of the House, and Republicans expected to keep their Senate majority.
What the market is truly overlooking is not the election result itself, but the political and legal disputes that could emerge if the result is challenged. If the final outcome is unfavorable to Trump, the market is severely underestimating the likelihood that Trump would react strongly and challenge results in certain districts.
In that scenario, Trump may launch legal challenges to every “contested” district, delaying the certification process and triggering a wave of media coverage around disputes such as “what happens next” and claims that the election was “stolen.”
This political uncertainty could ultimately spill over into financial markets and drive volatility sharply higher. For markets, the most dangerous outcome is not necessarily that one side wins, but that the election result remains unconfirmed for an extended period, creating persistent uncertainty.
自由1688
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Storage chips are facing a full-blown crisis! Samsung & SK hynix inventory is under 10 days—will AI infrastructure be bottlenecked again?
Brothers, I just saw a hard-hitting report released by South Korean brokerage KB Securities. The AI hardware “foundation” is about to make news again! The shortage of storage semiconductors hasn’t eased at all—it’s actually deteriorating rapidly.
Directly highlighting the key points for everyone:
1️⃣ Inventory is critically low: Samsung Electronics and SK hynix’s inventory of memory chips has already dropped to less than 10 days of supply! With the疯狂扩张 of investments in AI infrastructure, next year will very likely see a serious shortage of supply versus demand. 2️⃣ HBM4 as the “capacity-eating beast”: The industry is moving toward the next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4), but it requires wafers that are 3 times that of traditional DRAM. Once HBM4 is fully mass-produced, the capacity of traditional DRAM will be cut significantly. Institutions estimate that next year demand for DRAM and NAND will exceed supply by more than 10%. 3️⃣ An epic shortage wave: It’s not just HBM—AI servers will also consume massive amounts of server DDR5 memory and enterprise-grade solid-state drives (SSDs). 4️⃣ Big players are throwing money around: Global data center giants have raised their expected investments in AI infrastructure next year to $1.3 trillion (up 60% year over year). Moreover, the share of storage semiconductors in AI infrastructure investment is expected to jump from 14% last year to 57% (and some institutions even predict as high as 68%)!
Directly highlighting the key points for everyone:
1️⃣ Inventory is critically low: Samsung Electronics and SK hynix’s inventory of memory chips has already dropped to less than 10 days of supply! With the疯狂扩张 of investments in AI infrastructure, next year will very likely see a serious shortage of supply versus demand. 2️⃣ HBM4 as the “capacity-eating beast”: The industry is moving toward the next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4), but it requires wafers that are 3 times that of traditional DRAM. Once HBM4 is fully mass-produced, the capacity of traditional DRAM will be cut significantly. Institutions estimate that next year demand for DRAM and NAND will exceed supply by more than 10%. 3️⃣ An epic shortage wave: It’s not just HBM—AI servers will also consume massive amounts of server DDR5 memory and enterprise-grade solid-state drives (SSDs). 4️⃣ Big players are throwing money around: Global data center giants have raised their expected investments in AI infrastructure next year to $1.3 trillion (up 60% year over year). Moreover, the share of storage semiconductors in AI infrastructure investment is expected to jump from 14% last year to 57% (and some institutions even predict as high as 68%)!
幸运雨Rain
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Excessive preaching is the beginning of enmity.
Human nature instinctively likes to be affirmed. If you are always correcting someone and trying to tell them that doing it your way would be better, then for them it is not a benefit, but a blatant offense. They will feel that you are looking down on them.
As the saying goes, a doctor does not knock on doors, and the Way is not lightly passed on.
The experience you gained through blood and tears is, in the eyes of someone at a different level of understanding, nothing but nonsense.
Yet those offhand, perfunctory words encouraging him to continue being foolish can make him feel delighted, even grateful.
Everyone has their own fate. If the timing and affinity are not there, do not force yourself too hard.
#俄乌同时宣布停火3天
Human nature instinctively likes to be affirmed. If you are always correcting someone and trying to tell them that doing it your way would be better, then for them it is not a benefit, but a blatant offense. They will feel that you are looking down on them.
As the saying goes, a doctor does not knock on doors, and the Way is not lightly passed on.
The experience you gained through blood and tears is, in the eyes of someone at a different level of understanding, nothing but nonsense.
Yet those offhand, perfunctory words encouraging him to continue being foolish can make him feel delighted, even grateful.
Everyone has their own fate. If the timing and affinity are not there, do not force yourself too hard.
#俄乌同时宣布停火3天
圣克斯Lucky1688
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🧧🔥🧧🔥🧧🔥 Altcoin divergence is accelerating, and the “broad-based rally era” has come to a complete end: as high-FDV (fully diluted valuation), low-float tokens continue to unlock, market liquidity is being severely diluted. Capital is no longer blindly speculating on empty narratives, but is rapidly concentrating into leading applications and ecosystems with real protocol revenue (Real Yield) and strong liquidity appeal.
The current market is in a pre-confirmation phase of macro easing, where token positioning battles are underway. Rather than blindly chasing highs, focusing on real cash flow within ecosystems and token structure is the more critical investment logic. Follow me and reply with answer 1 to receive double the $SOL红包.🧧🔥🧧🔥🧧🔥
The current market is in a pre-confirmation phase of macro easing, where token positioning battles are underway. Rather than blindly chasing highs, focusing on real cash flow within ecosystems and token structure is the more critical investment logic. Follow me and reply with answer 1 to receive double the $SOL红包.🧧🔥🧧🔥🧧🔥
晚风Vesper_1688
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🌙 The night colors arrive—let’s properly say goodbye to today’s market screen 🍃
As the trading day comes to an end, allow room for regrets in your operations 📊.
The hardest part of trading isn’t making a profit—it’s knowing how to bring your emotions back into place 🕯️.
Don’t dwell on the intraday profit or loss results, and don’t let brief fluctuations drain you.
Review quietly, sort out your thoughts, correct your understanding, and let your mindset settle in ✨.
Market opportunities keep coming. Take care of your condition, and wait calmly for the next move 💎.
To fellow travelers on the journey—set down your fatigue and rest safely 🌌
#交易心理
#美伊互袭油轮冲突升级
#1688家族family
As the trading day comes to an end, allow room for regrets in your operations 📊.
The hardest part of trading isn’t making a profit—it’s knowing how to bring your emotions back into place 🕯️.
Don’t dwell on the intraday profit or loss results, and don’t let brief fluctuations drain you.
Review quietly, sort out your thoughts, correct your understanding, and let your mindset settle in ✨.
Market opportunities keep coming. Take care of your condition, and wait calmly for the next move 💎.
To fellow travelers on the journey—set down your fatigue and rest safely 🌌
#交易心理
#美伊互袭油轮冲突升级
#1688家族family
大仁Jaron
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AI's Next Stop: When the 'Shovel Sellers' Start Outrunning the 'Miners'
The AI capex frenzy has not cooled, but the flow of money is changing.
Over the past two years, the market's pricing logic for AI has been almost entirely centered on U.S. tech giants—Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta. These hyperscale cloud providers have been seen as the ultimate beneficiaries of the AI era. But now, a group of institutional investors managing large pools of capital is beginning to reassess that consensus.
According to Bloomberg, PIMCO fund manager Emmanuel Sharef is making a clear shift in positioning: adding to Asia and underweighting U.S. tech giants.
The fund managed by Sharef has assets of about $19 billion and has outperformed 97% of its peers over the past three years. This performance backdrop makes his portfolio adjustments quite worthy of attention.
Over the past two years, the market's pricing logic for AI has been almost entirely centered on U.S. tech giants—Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta. These hyperscale cloud providers have been seen as the ultimate beneficiaries of the AI era. But now, a group of institutional investors managing large pools of capital is beginning to reassess that consensus.
According to Bloomberg, PIMCO fund manager Emmanuel Sharef is making a clear shift in positioning: adding to Asia and underweighting U.S. tech giants.
The fund managed by Sharef has assets of about $19 billion and has outperformed 97% of its peers over the past three years. This performance backdrop makes his portfolio adjustments quite worthy of attention.
正乾商学--四条2
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🧧🧧🧧Follow + like + support each other🎁🎁🎁
Thank you for your support and likes! Please help me repost it on your profile. I really appreciate it!”
Ten years of crypto trading experience:
True maturity means being able to resist even when you see opportunities, and not losing your discipline when you see market fluctuations.
Don't let one profit change your trading system, and don't let one loss destroy your confidence.
The market tempts you to trade every day, while the experts are filtering every day what is worth trading.
#三星SK海力士领涨韩股走高
#美国空袭伊朗油轮德黑兰限制霍尔木兹海峡
Thank you for your support and likes! Please help me repost it on your profile. I really appreciate it!”
Ten years of crypto trading experience:
True maturity means being able to resist even when you see opportunities, and not losing your discipline when you see market fluctuations.
Don't let one profit change your trading system, and don't let one loss destroy your confidence.
The market tempts you to trade every day, while the experts are filtering every day what is worth trading.
#三星SK海力士领涨韩股走高
#美国空袭伊朗油轮德黑兰限制霍尔木兹海峡
oO小蝦米對抗大鯨魚Oo
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Little scallion🥦 research report📔 Historical price and future spot allocation analysis
#BNB — Ecological flagship coin
It is the native token of the BNB Chain ecosystem, mainly used for trading fee discounts, gas, DeFi, governance, and on-chain applications. Historically, BNB has performed very strongly in bull markets, but it is also highly affected by the development of the #Binance ecosystem.
Important price ranges over the years
2017: about $0.6 to $10
2020: low around $9
2021: high around $676
2022 bear market: low around $196
2024: high around $750
2025 ATH: about $1,370
2026 intrayear range: about $541 to $949
🚩Spot operations
$600 to $650 🟢 First buy point
$520 to $580 🟢 Strong add point
$900 to $1,000 🔴 First sell point
$1,200 to $1,370🔴 Second sell point
👉Among the four coins, BNB has the most complete fundamentals and is suitable for medium- to long-term spot allocation.
#XRP — High-volatility event-driven asset
Focused on cross-border payments and the XRPL ecosystem, with extremely large historical volatility, especially easily affected by policy, regulation, and market news. Data shows its historical high was about $3.65 (in 2025).
Important historical prices
2017: $0.006 → nearly $2
2018: high around $2.78
2020: low around $0.14
2021: high around $1.83
2024: high around $2.71
2025 ATH: about $3.65
2026 intrayear low around $0.99
🚩Spot operations
$1.20 to $1.50🟢 Buy in batches
$1.00 to $1.20🟢 Excellent buy point
$2.20 to $2.60🔴 First sell point
$3.00 to $3.65🔴 Second sell point
👉Suitable for "buy low, sell in batches at high levels"; not recommended to chase highs.
#TRX — Stable public-chain asset
It is the native token of the TRON network, mainly used in DeFi, stablecoin, and payment scenarios. Compared with many altcoins, TRX has had a relatively stable trend over the past few years. Historical ATH is about $0.43 to $0.44.
Important prices over the years
2018 high: about $0.30
2020: low around $0.008
2021: high around $0.16
2023: broke above $0.10
2024 ATH: about $0.43
2026 range: about $0.27 to $0.38
🚩Spot operations
$0.28 to $0.30🟢 First buy point
$0.24 to $0.27🟢 Strong buy point
$0.38 to $0.43🔴 First sell point
$0.50 to $0.60🔴 Bull market target
👉Its characteristic is not a sharp-rally type, but rather a relatively resilient and steady allocation.
The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Before investing, please also confirm your personal financial risk tolerance.
$BNB
$TRX
$XRP
#BNB — Ecological flagship coin
It is the native token of the BNB Chain ecosystem, mainly used for trading fee discounts, gas, DeFi, governance, and on-chain applications. Historically, BNB has performed very strongly in bull markets, but it is also highly affected by the development of the #Binance ecosystem.
Important price ranges over the years
2017: about $0.6 to $10
2020: low around $9
2021: high around $676
2022 bear market: low around $196
2024: high around $750
2025 ATH: about $1,370
2026 intrayear range: about $541 to $949
🚩Spot operations
$600 to $650 🟢 First buy point
$520 to $580 🟢 Strong add point
$900 to $1,000 🔴 First sell point
$1,200 to $1,370🔴 Second sell point
👉Among the four coins, BNB has the most complete fundamentals and is suitable for medium- to long-term spot allocation.
#XRP — High-volatility event-driven asset
Focused on cross-border payments and the XRPL ecosystem, with extremely large historical volatility, especially easily affected by policy, regulation, and market news. Data shows its historical high was about $3.65 (in 2025).
Important historical prices
2017: $0.006 → nearly $2
2018: high around $2.78
2020: low around $0.14
2021: high around $1.83
2024: high around $2.71
2025 ATH: about $3.65
2026 intrayear low around $0.99
🚩Spot operations
$1.20 to $1.50🟢 Buy in batches
$1.00 to $1.20🟢 Excellent buy point
$2.20 to $2.60🔴 First sell point
$3.00 to $3.65🔴 Second sell point
👉Suitable for "buy low, sell in batches at high levels"; not recommended to chase highs.
#TRX — Stable public-chain asset
It is the native token of the TRON network, mainly used in DeFi, stablecoin, and payment scenarios. Compared with many altcoins, TRX has had a relatively stable trend over the past few years. Historical ATH is about $0.43 to $0.44.
Important prices over the years
2018 high: about $0.30
2020: low around $0.008
2021: high around $0.16
2023: broke above $0.10
2024 ATH: about $0.43
2026 range: about $0.27 to $0.38
🚩Spot operations
$0.28 to $0.30🟢 First buy point
$0.24 to $0.27🟢 Strong buy point
$0.38 to $0.43🔴 First sell point
$0.50 to $0.60🔴 Bull market target
👉Its characteristic is not a sharp-rally type, but rather a relatively resilient and steady allocation.
The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Before investing, please also confirm your personal financial risk tolerance.
$BNB
$TRX
$XRP
捷豹1988
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Labor Day holiday closure
Today’s U.S. stock market is closed
Everyone, go wash up and get some sleep early……
Today’s U.S. stock market is closed
Everyone, go wash up and get some sleep early……
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🎙️ Let's talk about market trends trading and investing in BNB spot through DCA!
End
02 h 56 m 19 s
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@心悦Joy good article sharing
心悦Joy
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Recently, OpenAI’s official blog published an article titled “Research acceleration: The view inside OpenAI,” and for the first time publicly disclosed progress on AI “recursive self-improvement” (RSI) in the form of internal data. The article notes that the team has already achieved the goal set last fall: building an “automated research intern” by this September. An “automated research intern” refers to a system capable of carrying out clearly defined research tasks under human guidance, including tasks that experienced researchers would need several days to complete. Looking ahead, OpenAI expects to achieve a full “automated AI researcher” by March 2028, enabling it to participate in deep learning and alignment research and further improve the system through iteration. This means the vision of “AI training AI” is accelerating.
Related data also indirectly supports this point. According to OpenAI’s statistics, at the beginning of this year, the median use of Agents by OpenAI’s internal researchers was still relatively low. By mid-August, those researchers had integrated Agents into their daily work. Based on public API pricing, researchers at median usage levels were already consuming token value worth more than $600 per day; among the organization’s top 10% heavy users, daily token consumption exceeded $7,000. Image source: OpenAI
In addition, OpenAI noted that as automation advances, the research tasks least susceptible to automation will instead take up more of researchers’ time and become the future bottleneck in AI R&D; once other bottlenecks are eased, the importance of compute will become even more pronounced. Shortly after the article was published, OpenAI team member Kevin Liu reposted it on X and said: “RSI is very likely to be the core driver of the next leap in AI capabilities over the coming years, but this technology currently exists only in a few leading AI labs.”
He further called for: “The importance of information transparency has never been greater. It can help the public fully discuss: at what pace should we advance model development, and whether it needs to be constrained. I recommend that other AI companies take the same approach to public disclosure.” In fact, OpenAI is by no means the only AI company betting on RSI.
Related data also indirectly supports this point. According to OpenAI’s statistics, at the beginning of this year, the median use of Agents by OpenAI’s internal researchers was still relatively low. By mid-August, those researchers had integrated Agents into their daily work. Based on public API pricing, researchers at median usage levels were already consuming token value worth more than $600 per day; among the organization’s top 10% heavy users, daily token consumption exceeded $7,000. Image source: OpenAI
In addition, OpenAI noted that as automation advances, the research tasks least susceptible to automation will instead take up more of researchers’ time and become the future bottleneck in AI R&D; once other bottlenecks are eased, the importance of compute will become even more pronounced. Shortly after the article was published, OpenAI team member Kevin Liu reposted it on X and said: “RSI is very likely to be the core driver of the next leap in AI capabilities over the coming years, but this technology currently exists only in a few leading AI labs.”
He further called for: “The importance of information transparency has never been greater. It can help the public fully discuss: at what pace should we advance model development, and whether it needs to be constrained. I recommend that other AI companies take the same approach to public disclosure.” In fact, OpenAI is by no means the only AI company betting on RSI.
奕澤YiiiiiZze
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🧧🎁
The wind sweeps across the mountains and fields, rushing toward the next mountains and seas.
All perseverance will eventually meet the light that belongs to itself.
——Lucic
The wind sweeps across the mountains and fields, rushing toward the next mountains and seas.
All perseverance will eventually meet the light that belongs to itself.
——Lucic
蒋雅琪1368
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The uncertain future of Bitcoin?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s new cryptocurrency rules
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the agency’s proposed new crypto regulations are consistent with the view that the CLARITY Act will be enacted into law. Atkins said this is "the most historic step taken toward modernizing crypto regulation."
U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated the company’s vision of making the United States the "leader" of the Bitcoin economy.
$BTC
I remain firmly bullish on BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL and continue to invest!
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s new cryptocurrency rules
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the agency’s proposed new crypto regulations are consistent with the view that the CLARITY Act will be enacted into law. Atkins said this is "the most historic step taken toward modernizing crypto regulation."
U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated the company’s vision of making the United States the "leader" of the Bitcoin economy.
$BTC
I remain firmly bullish on BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL and continue to invest!
英鸿³³₇
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[Replay] 🎙️ Top-tier competition, booming market — did you get a piece of it? bnb
01 h 33 m 46 s · 5.6k listens
九千金-顺势财神
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Women who make money have light in their eyes and a path beneath their feet
The financial world does not believe in tears, only in strength. Keep your mindset steady and see the trend clearly
The next one to double will surely be you
The financial world does not believe in tears, only in strength. Keep your mindset steady and see the trend clearly
The next one to double will surely be you
@Ma Dafu is here
马大富来了
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Hi, daily one-pack benefits, 10,000 sets, fans' benefits!
🎁repost my pin post
Claim your gift🎁
#中国八大金融机构注资3600亿元
🎁repost my pin post
Claim your gift🎁
#中国八大金融机构注资3600亿元
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🎙️ Level-one competition, a thriving scene—did you get your share? bnb
End
01 h 33 m 46 s
5.2k
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