$BTC
🚨🇺🇲 Trump, Bessent, and Warsh all divvying up the work to control oil prices, US Treasury yields, and interest rates, plus all the rate hike or cut expectations, mind 👀
Especially with Trump, like — he could easily mess about with the timing of any war around the Strait of Hormuz in Iran (like holding off on retaliating, keeping everyone on edge) just to tweak oil prices in the short term, which means inflation numbers get tweaked as well, man.
So, this recent spike in oil prices could just be a proper grand excuse to let Warsh act all hawkish or even put a rate hike on the cards for September ↩️
If they actually fancy a rate hike in September, they can just keep oil prices sky-high for now.
Now, say the CPI comes out on Sept 11th and rate hike odds go through the roof, but then they want to cool things back down , They could just hammer oil prices down after the CPI data drops on the 11th. That way, when the FOMC comes round on Sept 16th and they don't hike, they can just spin it like, "well, high oil isn't gonna last, so no hike needed" (even if the 11th data is August's CPI, they can force the narrative anyway). Fed gets a proper clean exit, innit. Plays both ways, worst case they just stay hawkish 🙄
Basically, whether they hike or not, they can play it through oil prices to keep the Fed looking independent and proper 📢
If this guess is bang on, opening a short on crude might only make sense after the CPI data is out. Let’s just play it by ear next week, pet 👌
$TRUMP
$BZ
#TRUMP #Fed #Market_Update
🚨🇺🇲 Trump, Bessent, and Warsh all divvying up the work to control oil prices, US Treasury yields, and interest rates, plus all the rate hike or cut expectations, mind 👀
Especially with Trump, like — he could easily mess about with the timing of any war around the Strait of Hormuz in Iran (like holding off on retaliating, keeping everyone on edge) just to tweak oil prices in the short term, which means inflation numbers get tweaked as well, man.
So, this recent spike in oil prices could just be a proper grand excuse to let Warsh act all hawkish or even put a rate hike on the cards for September ↩️
If they actually fancy a rate hike in September, they can just keep oil prices sky-high for now.
Now, say the CPI comes out on Sept 11th and rate hike odds go through the roof, but then they want to cool things back down , They could just hammer oil prices down after the CPI data drops on the 11th. That way, when the FOMC comes round on Sept 16th and they don't hike, they can just spin it like, "well, high oil isn't gonna last, so no hike needed" (even if the 11th data is August's CPI, they can force the narrative anyway). Fed gets a proper clean exit, innit. Plays both ways, worst case they just stay hawkish 🙄
Basically, whether they hike or not, they can play it through oil prices to keep the Fed looking independent and proper 📢
If this guess is bang on, opening a short on crude might only make sense after the CPI data is out. Let’s just play it by ear next week, pet 👌
$TRUMP
$BZ
#TRUMP #Fed #Market_Update
