橙子Joyce
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橙子Joyce
Square Verified+价值投资者:以十年为单位投资美股及BTC.ETH.BNB.SOL.推特X:@Joyce88ai
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Underestimated Risks in the U.S. Midterm Elections?
The market is seriously underestimating the risk that the results of the U.S. midterm elections could be challenged, triggering political and legal disputes. At the same time, hedging costs on Wall Street have fallen to their lowest level of the year, and the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options for November has dropped below 15%, creating a low-cost window to buy protection early.
The probability that the election results could be disputed, or even spark political turmoil, is being severely underestimated by the market, and current pricing in the options market does not fully reflect this tail risk.
As the market calmed in August, the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options has fallen significantly from its July highs. The calmer the market, the cheaper protection becomes; but once election risk is truly priced into assets, volatility could rise rapidly, and the cost of hedging at that point would increase markedly.
The core logic is built on the current polling situation. Polls generally show Trump’s approval rating slipping, Democrats likely to regain control of the House, and Republicans expected to keep their Senate majority.
What the market is truly overlooking is not the election result itself, but the political and legal disputes that could emerge if the result is challenged. If the final outcome is unfavorable to Trump, the market is severely underestimating the likelihood that Trump would react strongly and challenge results in certain districts.
In that scenario, Trump may launch legal challenges to every “contested” district, delaying the certification process and triggering a wave of media coverage around disputes such as “what happens next” and claims that the election was “stolen.”
This political uncertainty could ultimately spill over into financial markets and drive volatility sharply higher. For markets, the most dangerous outcome is not necessarily that one side wins, but that the election result remains unconfirmed for an extended period, creating persistent uncertainty.
The market is seriously underestimating the risk that the results of the U.S. midterm elections could be challenged, triggering political and legal disputes. At the same time, hedging costs on Wall Street have fallen to their lowest level of the year, and the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options for November has dropped below 15%, creating a low-cost window to buy protection early.
The probability that the election results could be disputed, or even spark political turmoil, is being severely underestimated by the market, and current pricing in the options market does not fully reflect this tail risk.
As the market calmed in August, the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options has fallen significantly from its July highs. The calmer the market, the cheaper protection becomes; but once election risk is truly priced into assets, volatility could rise rapidly, and the cost of hedging at that point would increase markedly.
The core logic is built on the current polling situation. Polls generally show Trump’s approval rating slipping, Democrats likely to regain control of the House, and Republicans expected to keep their Senate majority.
What the market is truly overlooking is not the election result itself, but the political and legal disputes that could emerge if the result is challenged. If the final outcome is unfavorable to Trump, the market is severely underestimating the likelihood that Trump would react strongly and challenge results in certain districts.
In that scenario, Trump may launch legal challenges to every “contested” district, delaying the certification process and triggering a wave of media coverage around disputes such as “what happens next” and claims that the election was “stolen.”
This political uncertainty could ultimately spill over into financial markets and drive volatility sharply higher. For markets, the most dangerous outcome is not necessarily that one side wins, but that the election result remains unconfirmed for an extended period, creating persistent uncertainty.
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Has the U.S. stock market encountered the “September curse”?
September has never been a calm month for Wall Street.
Data since 1928 show that the S&P 500 has a 56% probability of declining in September, with an average drop of more than 1%; since 1897, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recorded an average monthly decline of 1.1% in September, and it has posted gains in September only 42.2% of the time. What has led to this kind of market performance?
As September begins, concern over the “September curse” in the U.S. stock market has started to rise. The month has long been viewed as the worst-performing month of the year for U.S. equities, with clear signs of seasonal weakness across the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.
Investors should not be scared off by historical data, because the worst Septembers in history all occurred when the market was already unstable or weak. The “September curse” is a statistically real but non-deterministic form of seasonal underperformance, driven by a combination of distraction, buying vacuum, macro repricing, and extreme tail risks. In actual investing, it should be treated as a probabilistic reference, not an iron rule. Although historical data show that September is often the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, when the index enters September above its 200-day moving average, its downside risk narrows significantly.
Risks and opportunities coexist
If we shift the perspective from broad market indices to specific sectors and individual stocks, September’s investment strategy becomes more nuanced.
Technology stocks also offer opportunities for buyers waiting for pullbacks. From its September high to its interim low, the average decline in the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF is slightly above 1%, and then it has historically risen more than 6% on average from the low to year-end. Within technology, although the sustainability of data center spending growth remains in question, corporate earnings provide more direct support: Dell Technologies is seeing explosive demand growth for data center servers, and its latest earnings and guidance both exceeded market expectations; Nvidia delivered a far stronger-than-expected outlook for 2028 market demand; cybersecurity software leader Palo Alto Networks also reported profits far above expectations. The sector’s overall earnings per share are expected to grow by 36% in 2027.
$SPCX.US The process of compounding and multiplying wealth requires long-term accumulation!
$GOOGL.US
$NVDA.US
September has never been a calm month for Wall Street.
Data since 1928 show that the S&P 500 has a 56% probability of declining in September, with an average drop of more than 1%; since 1897, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recorded an average monthly decline of 1.1% in September, and it has posted gains in September only 42.2% of the time. What has led to this kind of market performance?
As September begins, concern over the “September curse” in the U.S. stock market has started to rise. The month has long been viewed as the worst-performing month of the year for U.S. equities, with clear signs of seasonal weakness across the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.
Investors should not be scared off by historical data, because the worst Septembers in history all occurred when the market was already unstable or weak. The “September curse” is a statistically real but non-deterministic form of seasonal underperformance, driven by a combination of distraction, buying vacuum, macro repricing, and extreme tail risks. In actual investing, it should be treated as a probabilistic reference, not an iron rule. Although historical data show that September is often the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, when the index enters September above its 200-day moving average, its downside risk narrows significantly.
Risks and opportunities coexist
If we shift the perspective from broad market indices to specific sectors and individual stocks, September’s investment strategy becomes more nuanced.
Technology stocks also offer opportunities for buyers waiting for pullbacks. From its September high to its interim low, the average decline in the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF is slightly above 1%, and then it has historically risen more than 6% on average from the low to year-end. Within technology, although the sustainability of data center spending growth remains in question, corporate earnings provide more direct support: Dell Technologies is seeing explosive demand growth for data center servers, and its latest earnings and guidance both exceeded market expectations; Nvidia delivered a far stronger-than-expected outlook for 2028 market demand; cybersecurity software leader Palo Alto Networks also reported profits far above expectations. The sector’s overall earnings per share are expected to grow by 36% in 2027.
$SPCX.US The process of compounding and multiplying wealth requires long-term accumulation!
$GOOGL.US
$NVDA.US
NVDAUS+0.63%
GOOGLUS-1.12%
SPCXUS-1.18%
@心悦Joy good article sharing
心悦Joy
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Recently, OpenAI’s official blog published an article titled “Research acceleration: The view inside OpenAI,” and for the first time publicly disclosed progress on AI “recursive self-improvement” (RSI) in the form of internal data. The article notes that the team has already achieved the goal set last fall: building an “automated research intern” by this September. An “automated research intern” refers to a system capable of carrying out clearly defined research tasks under human guidance, including tasks that experienced researchers would need several days to complete. Looking ahead, OpenAI expects to achieve a full “automated AI researcher” by March 2028, enabling it to participate in deep learning and alignment research and further improve the system through iteration. This means the vision of “AI training AI” is accelerating.
Related data also indirectly supports this point. According to OpenAI’s statistics, at the beginning of this year, the median use of Agents by OpenAI’s internal researchers was still relatively low. By mid-August, those researchers had integrated Agents into their daily work. Based on public API pricing, researchers at median usage levels were already consuming token value worth more than $600 per day; among the organization’s top 10% heavy users, daily token consumption exceeded $7,000. Image source: OpenAI
In addition, OpenAI noted that as automation advances, the research tasks least susceptible to automation will instead take up more of researchers’ time and become the future bottleneck in AI R&D; once other bottlenecks are eased, the importance of compute will become even more pronounced. Shortly after the article was published, OpenAI team member Kevin Liu reposted it on X and said: “RSI is very likely to be the core driver of the next leap in AI capabilities over the coming years, but this technology currently exists only in a few leading AI labs.”
He further called for: “The importance of information transparency has never been greater. It can help the public fully discuss: at what pace should we advance model development, and whether it needs to be constrained. I recommend that other AI companies take the same approach to public disclosure.” In fact, OpenAI is by no means the only AI company betting on RSI.
Related data also indirectly supports this point. According to OpenAI’s statistics, at the beginning of this year, the median use of Agents by OpenAI’s internal researchers was still relatively low. By mid-August, those researchers had integrated Agents into their daily work. Based on public API pricing, researchers at median usage levels were already consuming token value worth more than $600 per day; among the organization’s top 10% heavy users, daily token consumption exceeded $7,000. Image source: OpenAI
In addition, OpenAI noted that as automation advances, the research tasks least susceptible to automation will instead take up more of researchers’ time and become the future bottleneck in AI R&D; once other bottlenecks are eased, the importance of compute will become even more pronounced. Shortly after the article was published, OpenAI team member Kevin Liu reposted it on X and said: “RSI is very likely to be the core driver of the next leap in AI capabilities over the coming years, but this technology currently exists only in a few leading AI labs.”
He further called for: “The importance of information transparency has never been greater. It can help the public fully discuss: at what pace should we advance model development, and whether it needs to be constrained. I recommend that other AI companies take the same approach to public disclosure.” In fact, OpenAI is by no means the only AI company betting on RSI.
奕澤YiiiiiZze
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🧧🎁
The wind sweeps across the mountains and fields, rushing toward the next mountains and seas.
All perseverance will eventually meet the light that belongs to itself.
——Lucic
The wind sweeps across the mountains and fields, rushing toward the next mountains and seas.
All perseverance will eventually meet the light that belongs to itself.
——Lucic
蒋雅琪1368
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The uncertain future of Bitcoin?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s new cryptocurrency rules
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the agency’s proposed new crypto regulations are consistent with the view that the CLARITY Act will be enacted into law. Atkins said this is "the most historic step taken toward modernizing crypto regulation."
U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated the company’s vision of making the United States the "leader" of the Bitcoin economy.
$BTC
I remain firmly bullish on BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL and continue to invest!
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s new cryptocurrency rules
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the agency’s proposed new crypto regulations are consistent with the view that the CLARITY Act will be enacted into law. Atkins said this is "the most historic step taken toward modernizing crypto regulation."
U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated the company’s vision of making the United States the "leader" of the Bitcoin economy.
$BTC
I remain firmly bullish on BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL and continue to invest!
英鸿³³₇
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[Replay] 🎙️ Top-tier competition, booming market — did you get a piece of it? bnb
01 h 33 m 46 s · 5.6k listens
九千金-顺势财神
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Women who make money have light in their eyes and a path beneath their feet
The financial world does not believe in tears, only in strength. Keep your mindset steady and see the trend clearly
The next one to double will surely be you
The financial world does not believe in tears, only in strength. Keep your mindset steady and see the trend clearly
The next one to double will surely be you
@Ma Dafu is here
马大富来了
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Hi, daily one-pack benefits, 10,000 sets, fans' benefits!
🎁repost my pin post
Claim your gift🎁
#中国八大金融机构注资3600亿元
🎁repost my pin post
Claim your gift🎁
#中国八大金融机构注资3600亿元
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🎙️ Level-one competition, a thriving scene—did you get your share? bnb
End
01 h 33 m 46 s
5.2k
23
白鲨观点
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ZEC exploded today, surging nearly 20% in 24 hours and 45% over the past week, pushing straight into the top ten by market cap. Even more exaggerated, its liquidation amount actually exceeded BTC's — showing that this rally has basically crushed the shorts.
Why did it suddenly take off? On the surface, it looks like a Meme launchpad called shld.fun emerged in the Zcash ecosystem, stirring up a wave of hype. But if you think deeper, the privacy coin sector has been quiet for too long, so long that people had almost forgotten it even existed.
It's like a long-ignored stock suddenly gets a small positive catalyst and the price shoots up, not because the catalyst is huge, but because the short positions are too heavy; even a slight push triggers a chain reaction of liquidations.
But here's the question: has the fundamentals of privacy coins really changed? No. Regulatory attitudes haven't changed, and the actual use cases are still the same. This rally is more about capital games and sector rotation, not a revaluation of intrinsic value.
When prices rise, don't get carried away; when they fall, don't panic. The crypto market is always like this: when the wind blows, even pigs can fly; when the wind stops, the ones who fall to their deaths are always the ones who were flying highest just moments ago.
How far can this ZEC move go? I've整理ed a few key resistance levels and on-chain data, so let's discuss the sustainability of this rally together in the chatroom.
#zec
Why did it suddenly take off? On the surface, it looks like a Meme launchpad called shld.fun emerged in the Zcash ecosystem, stirring up a wave of hype. But if you think deeper, the privacy coin sector has been quiet for too long, so long that people had almost forgotten it even existed.
It's like a long-ignored stock suddenly gets a small positive catalyst and the price shoots up, not because the catalyst is huge, but because the short positions are too heavy; even a slight push triggers a chain reaction of liquidations.
But here's the question: has the fundamentals of privacy coins really changed? No. Regulatory attitudes haven't changed, and the actual use cases are still the same. This rally is more about capital games and sector rotation, not a revaluation of intrinsic value.
When prices rise, don't get carried away; when they fall, don't panic. The crypto market is always like this: when the wind blows, even pigs can fly; when the wind stops, the ones who fall to their deaths are always the ones who were flying highest just moments ago.
How far can this ZEC move go? I've整理ed a few key resistance levels and on-chain data, so let's discuss the sustainability of this rally together in the chatroom.
#zec
听澜321
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$ZEC Old coin, new narrative?
It’s already been pumped for a long time.
Last week I got a small liquidation from shorting it.
What about you all?
Did you make a profit, or did you take a beating 😂😂
Let’s chat in the comments 😅
#ZEC续刷历史新高
It’s already been pumped for a long time.
Last week I got a small liquidation from shorting it.
What about you all?
Did you make a profit, or did you take a beating 😂😂
Let’s chat in the comments 😅
#ZEC续刷历史新高
艾雪XUE01688
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By day, a desk; by night, a drinking table
Traversing the realms of Buddha and demon
This is the Way
Not the Way
Traversing the realms of Buddha and demon
This is the Way
Not the Way
go
Sonu7856
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‼️$DOGE 🐕 Reward is here ‼️
I’m sharing $DOGE rewards with the community as a Bigger thank-you.
✨ Just claim your reward and enjoy! ✨
Claim it. Get rewarded
@Doge Coin _ $DOGE
I’m sharing $DOGE rewards with the community as a Bigger thank-you.
✨ Just claim your reward and enjoy! ✨
Claim it. Get rewarded
@Doge Coin _ $DOGE
Bilverse
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🧧 THE NEXT ETH GIVEAWAY IS HERE! 🧧
The market can be unpredictable… but generosity doesn’t have to be. 🧡
We’re spreading some ETH love to the community — because the people who build, support, and believe in crypto deserve to be rewarded. 🚀
Want to claim your ETH red packet? 👀
👇 HOW TO ENTER:
✅ FOLLOW @Bilverse
💬 Comment “YES” below
That’s it. Simple. 👌
If you’re still here building through the ups and downs…
THIS ONE’S FOR YOU. 🫡
#ETH #Ethereum #RedPacketMission #Bilverse #CryptoCommunity
The market can be unpredictable… but generosity doesn’t have to be. 🧡
We’re spreading some ETH love to the community — because the people who build, support, and believe in crypto deserve to be rewarded. 🚀
Want to claim your ETH red packet? 👀
👇 HOW TO ENTER:
✅ FOLLOW @Bilverse
💬 Comment “YES” below
That’s it. Simple. 👌
If you’re still here building through the ups and downs…
THIS ONE’S FOR YOU. 🫡
#ETH #Ethereum #RedPacketMission #Bilverse #CryptoCommunity
生蚝哥Oyster
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🧧On-chain Briefing｜An unusual signal in the rally: in this BTC surge, whales did not use the move to sell into strength
On September 6, on-chain analyst Murphy released a report. Using the BTC on-chain accumulation trend score, he compared whale on-chain behavior across multiple rebound cycles to interpret the underlying quality of this round of price action.
This indicator is used to observe whether whales holding the equivalent of 1,000 BTC / 10,000 BTC are net accumulating or reducing their holdings over a 30-day period:
• Values close to the black zone ≈ whales are continuously accumulating
• Values close to the yellow zone ≈ whales are distributing coins, or choosing to stay on the sidelines
Looking back at the last two rebound phases in history:
During the rallies in January this year, when BTC challenged $97,000, and in May, when it climbed to $82,000, the indicator was both in the yellow zone. The price increases were driven by short covering and short-term capital. Large holders sold into strength at the highs, while long-term capital failed to take over, which is a typical bear-market rebound structure.
But this round, as BTC rose from $60,000 to $80,000, the indicator remained in the black zone, and whales as a whole were net buyers over the past 30 days.
This is the first time across the three rounds of price action that the combination of “price surge + whales adding at the same time” has appeared. Historically, this structure has been more common during the main upward phase of a bull market, indicating that the underlying structure of this rally is relatively healthy.
Compared with the similar move in January 2023:
After the FTX collapse in November 2022, whales at the $16,000 bottom began positioning; but once the market rallied in January 2023, the indicator quickly turned yellow, with large holders stopping accumulation and starting to realize floating profits. That year’s gains relied more on short covering and improved macro expectations, while the drying up of market liquidity amplified volatility. The indicator could not capture the position changes of smaller retail traders.
It is therefore clear that although January 2023 and August 2026 had similar price trajectories, the behavior of on-chain dominant capital was fundamentally different.
On September 6, on-chain analyst Murphy released a report. Using the BTC on-chain accumulation trend score, he compared whale on-chain behavior across multiple rebound cycles to interpret the underlying quality of this round of price action.
This indicator is used to observe whether whales holding the equivalent of 1,000 BTC / 10,000 BTC are net accumulating or reducing their holdings over a 30-day period:
• Values close to the black zone ≈ whales are continuously accumulating
• Values close to the yellow zone ≈ whales are distributing coins, or choosing to stay on the sidelines
Looking back at the last two rebound phases in history:
During the rallies in January this year, when BTC challenged $97,000, and in May, when it climbed to $82,000, the indicator was both in the yellow zone. The price increases were driven by short covering and short-term capital. Large holders sold into strength at the highs, while long-term capital failed to take over, which is a typical bear-market rebound structure.
But this round, as BTC rose from $60,000 to $80,000, the indicator remained in the black zone, and whales as a whole were net buyers over the past 30 days.
This is the first time across the three rounds of price action that the combination of “price surge + whales adding at the same time” has appeared. Historically, this structure has been more common during the main upward phase of a bull market, indicating that the underlying structure of this rally is relatively healthy.
Compared with the similar move in January 2023:
After the FTX collapse in November 2022, whales at the $16,000 bottom began positioning; but once the market rallied in January 2023, the indicator quickly turned yellow, with large holders stopping accumulation and starting to realize floating profits. That year’s gains relied more on short covering and improved macro expectations, while the drying up of market liquidity amplified volatility. The indicator could not capture the position changes of smaller retail traders.
It is therefore clear that although January 2023 and August 2026 had similar price trajectories, the behavior of on-chain dominant capital was fundamentally different.
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