Has the U.S. stock market encountered the “September curse”?
September has never been a calm month for Wall Street.
Data since 1928 show that the S&P 500 has a 56% probability of declining in September, with an average drop of more than 1%; since 1897, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recorded an average monthly decline of 1.1% in September, and it has posted gains in September only 42.2% of the time. What has led to this kind of market performance?
As September begins, concern over the “September curse” in the U.S. stock market has started to rise. The month has long been viewed as the worst-performing month of the year for U.S. equities, with clear signs of seasonal weakness across the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.
Investors should not be scared off by historical data, because the worst Septembers in history all occurred when the market was already unstable or weak. The “September curse” is a statistically real but non-deterministic form of seasonal underperformance, driven by a combination of distraction, buying vacuum, macro repricing, and extreme tail risks. In actual investing, it should be treated as a probabilistic reference, not an iron rule. Although historical data show that September is often the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, when the index enters September above its 200-day moving average, its downside risk narrows significantly.
Risks and opportunities coexist
If we shift the perspective from broad market indices to specific sectors and individual stocks, September’s investment strategy becomes more nuanced.
Technology stocks also offer opportunities for buyers waiting for pullbacks. From its September high to its interim low, the average decline in the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF is slightly above 1%, and then it has historically risen more than 6% on average from the low to year-end. Within technology, although the sustainability of data center spending growth remains in question, corporate earnings provide more direct support: Dell Technologies is seeing explosive demand growth for data center servers, and its latest earnings and guidance both exceeded market expectations; Nvidia delivered a far stronger-than-expected outlook for 2028 market demand; cybersecurity software leader Palo Alto Networks also reported profits far above expectations. The sector’s overall earnings per share are expected to grow by 36% in 2027.
$SPCX.US The process of compounding and multiplying wealth requires long-term accumulation!
$GOOGL.US
$NVDA.US
September has never been a calm month for Wall Street.
Data since 1928 show that the S&P 500 has a 56% probability of declining in September, with an average drop of more than 1%; since 1897, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recorded an average monthly decline of 1.1% in September, and it has posted gains in September only 42.2% of the time. What has led to this kind of market performance?
As September begins, concern over the “September curse” in the U.S. stock market has started to rise. The month has long been viewed as the worst-performing month of the year for U.S. equities, with clear signs of seasonal weakness across the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.
Investors should not be scared off by historical data, because the worst Septembers in history all occurred when the market was already unstable or weak. The “September curse” is a statistically real but non-deterministic form of seasonal underperformance, driven by a combination of distraction, buying vacuum, macro repricing, and extreme tail risks. In actual investing, it should be treated as a probabilistic reference, not an iron rule. Although historical data show that September is often the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, when the index enters September above its 200-day moving average, its downside risk narrows significantly.
Risks and opportunities coexist
If we shift the perspective from broad market indices to specific sectors and individual stocks, September’s investment strategy becomes more nuanced.
Technology stocks also offer opportunities for buyers waiting for pullbacks. From its September high to its interim low, the average decline in the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF is slightly above 1%, and then it has historically risen more than 6% on average from the low to year-end. Within technology, although the sustainability of data center spending growth remains in question, corporate earnings provide more direct support: Dell Technologies is seeing explosive demand growth for data center servers, and its latest earnings and guidance both exceeded market expectations; Nvidia delivered a far stronger-than-expected outlook for 2028 market demand; cybersecurity software leader Palo Alto Networks also reported profits far above expectations. The sector’s overall earnings per share are expected to grow by 36% in 2027.
$SPCX.US The process of compounding and multiplying wealth requires long-term accumulation!
$GOOGL.US
$NVDA.US
