This three-hour late-night closed-door discussion in Moscow laid bare the cruelest and most real “bargaining logic” in great-power rivalry.
On the surface, it looked like Trump’s envoy Witkoff and his son-in-law Kushner were shuttling between capitals in a diplomatic effort to broker a three-day “mutual ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.” But this is by no means a glimmer of peace; it is a classic political performance and test of retreating in order to advance.
Putin chose this moment to do the U.S. envoy a favor by announcing a pause in airstrikes on Kyiv. The cost was minimal, yet it precisely seized the initiative. The Russian army’s advance on the front line is hard power, and it is also Russia’s biggest confidence booster at the negotiating table. The so-called “three-day halt to airstrikes on Kyiv” was, in essence, a tactical move that can be restarted at any time, in exchange for trust dividends from the U.S. in political mediation. At the same time, it poured cold water on Ukraine’s hopes of a broader ceasefire, once again sending a signal to the outside world: the pace is still controlled by Moscow, and any broad plan detached from battlefield reality is empty talk.
Ukraine’s response highlights its extreme passivity. Zelensky simultaneously announced a suspension of strikes on Moscow, seemingly to secure a more equal space for interaction, but this equality itself is a passive follow-up driven by U.S. pressure. Facing the U.S. representatives set to arrive in Kyiv on the 6th, Ukraine must rely on this posture to maintain Washington’s attention and political support.
The real core of the U.S. shuttle diplomacy is that Trump’s team is eager to secure tangible political leverage before the upcoming trip to Kyiv. What Kushner and Witkoff want is not an inch of Donbas, but something they can present to American public opinion as a “mediation achievement.” The confirmation by Russia and the U.S. that direct contact between the presidents will be maintained means that for a long time to come, the level at which the war’s trajectory is decided has further tilted toward Moscow and Washington, while Kyiv’s room for tactical choice is being squeezed narrower and narrower.
This kind of short ceasefire can easily collapse at any moment. For observers truly focused on geopolitical developments, who puts what on the negotiating table in these three days is far more consequential than the temporary calm on the battlefield. $BTC
#俄乌同时宣布停火3天
On the surface, it looked like Trump’s envoy Witkoff and his son-in-law Kushner were shuttling between capitals in a diplomatic effort to broker a three-day “mutual ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.” But this is by no means a glimmer of peace; it is a classic political performance and test of retreating in order to advance.
Putin chose this moment to do the U.S. envoy a favor by announcing a pause in airstrikes on Kyiv. The cost was minimal, yet it precisely seized the initiative. The Russian army’s advance on the front line is hard power, and it is also Russia’s biggest confidence booster at the negotiating table. The so-called “three-day halt to airstrikes on Kyiv” was, in essence, a tactical move that can be restarted at any time, in exchange for trust dividends from the U.S. in political mediation. At the same time, it poured cold water on Ukraine’s hopes of a broader ceasefire, once again sending a signal to the outside world: the pace is still controlled by Moscow, and any broad plan detached from battlefield reality is empty talk.
Ukraine’s response highlights its extreme passivity. Zelensky simultaneously announced a suspension of strikes on Moscow, seemingly to secure a more equal space for interaction, but this equality itself is a passive follow-up driven by U.S. pressure. Facing the U.S. representatives set to arrive in Kyiv on the 6th, Ukraine must rely on this posture to maintain Washington’s attention and political support.
The real core of the U.S. shuttle diplomacy is that Trump’s team is eager to secure tangible political leverage before the upcoming trip to Kyiv. What Kushner and Witkoff want is not an inch of Donbas, but something they can present to American public opinion as a “mediation achievement.” The confirmation by Russia and the U.S. that direct contact between the presidents will be maintained means that for a long time to come, the level at which the war’s trajectory is decided has further tilted toward Moscow and Washington, while Kyiv’s room for tactical choice is being squeezed narrower and narrower.
This kind of short ceasefire can easily collapse at any moment. For observers truly focused on geopolitical developments, who puts what on the negotiating table in these three days is far more consequential than the temporary calm on the battlefield. $BTC
#俄乌同时宣布停火3天
