$MUU rose 2.823% over the past 24 hours to 35.33, with the funding rate holding at 0.00059. Trump said he wants to cut taxes for U.S. stock companies, and on-chain U.S. stock contracts are being used directly as a trading signal. The slightly positive funding rate suggests longs are steadily pushing prices up, but positions haven’t exploded, with open interest at 159244. The market still isn’t at the point of wildly betting on one-way movement.
It’s unrealistic to bet solely on Trump’s policy actually being implemented. This funding-rate structure looks more like both longs and shorts are probing the market. Longs are betting on policy expectations, while shorts are betting that the good news is already fully priced in. The advantage of contracts is that both sides can place bets; with a low funding rate, shorting costs are also low. If the price rises above 35.5 and the funding rate doesn’t increase, I’ll add a short position, 2x leverage, with a stop loss at 35.8. If the price falls below 34.9, long stop-loss orders will come out, and I’ll follow the downside with shorts.
The invalidation conditions are clear: if Trump suddenly posts on social media with a clear legislative timetable, or if the U.S. stock indices surge by more than 3% in tandem, then this short-side logic has to be abandoned. Right now, the bet is on the time gap between policy talk and actual implementation. As long as the funding rate doesn’t take off, the bears still have room.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #MUU
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?
It’s unrealistic to bet solely on Trump’s policy actually being implemented. This funding-rate structure looks more like both longs and shorts are probing the market. Longs are betting on policy expectations, while shorts are betting that the good news is already fully priced in. The advantage of contracts is that both sides can place bets; with a low funding rate, shorting costs are also low. If the price rises above 35.5 and the funding rate doesn’t increase, I’ll add a short position, 2x leverage, with a stop loss at 35.8. If the price falls below 34.9, long stop-loss orders will come out, and I’ll follow the downside with shorts.
The invalidation conditions are clear: if Trump suddenly posts on social media with a clear legislative timetable, or if the U.S. stock indices surge by more than 3% in tandem, then this short-side logic has to be abandoned. Right now, the bet is on the time gap between policy talk and actual implementation. As long as the funding rate doesn’t take off, the bears still have room.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #MUU
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?