ETF liquidity frenzy vs. post-NFP rate-hike expectations: institutional buying and macro pricing at odds
U.S. stocks were closed for the Labor Day long weekend, but spot Bitcoin ETF inflows did not take a break. According to publicly available data from SoSoValue/Cointelegraph and others, as of the week ending September 5, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of about $986.9 million, bringing the past three weeks to roughly $3.8 billion in total — the strongest three-week inflow stretch since 2026; even on Friday’s NFP shock, they still saw about $174.6 million in net inflows. Over the same period, BTC pulled back from around $82,000 and continued to fluctuate near the $80,000 level.
On the other side, August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far above the roughly 53,000–56,000 expected, pushing the market’s probability of a 25 bp rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to about 60%. The next key window is the PPI/CPI data on September 10–11. The market is showing a classic split: ETFs are seeing steady institutional accumulation, while rates are raising the discount rate applied to risk assets. A holiday closure does not mean the narrative stops — before the open, the key is to watch how inflation data rewrites the odds of a rate hike.
Compiled from public data/news, not investment advice.$BTC #ETF #非农 #FOMC #美股
U.S. stocks were closed for the Labor Day long weekend, but spot Bitcoin ETF inflows did not take a break. According to publicly available data from SoSoValue/Cointelegraph and others, as of the week ending September 5, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of about $986.9 million, bringing the past three weeks to roughly $3.8 billion in total — the strongest three-week inflow stretch since 2026; even on Friday’s NFP shock, they still saw about $174.6 million in net inflows. Over the same period, BTC pulled back from around $82,000 and continued to fluctuate near the $80,000 level.
On the other side, August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far above the roughly 53,000–56,000 expected, pushing the market’s probability of a 25 bp rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to about 60%. The next key window is the PPI/CPI data on September 10–11. The market is showing a classic split: ETFs are seeing steady institutional accumulation, while rates are raising the discount rate applied to risk assets. A holiday closure does not mean the narrative stops — before the open, the key is to watch how inflation data rewrites the odds of a rate hike.
Compiled from public data/news, not investment advice.$BTC #ETF #非农 #FOMC #美股
