Have you ever felt that Bitcoin has increasingly stopped looking like a tech stock lately and instead is starting to look more and more like real gold? $BTC
According to Bitwise's latest data, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has surged to +0.50, a near 6-year high, while its correlation with the Nasdaq has fallen to a low of 0.30 $XAUT
Many people's first reaction is that the digital gold narrative has finally materialized, but I believe this is not Bitcoin changing; rather, it is the market's risk-off logic that has changed
In the past, institutions bought Bitcoin for its tech characteristics and upside potential. Now, they allocate to it purely out of anxiety over fiat currency depreciation and the expansion of U.S. debt. As the U.S. Treasury steps up Treasury buybacks, funds have simply started treating gold and Bitcoin as the same defensive combination. At the same time, unusual movement among coins held for more than 5 years is not a dump, but rather a deep rotation of holdings into institutional hands
Next prediction
In the short term, this high correlation is only temporary. Once macro liquidity floods the market, Bitcoin's high beta will again unleash gains far exceeding gold's. But in the long run, it has successfully crossed over and officially joined the safe-haven pool of global hard-currency assets
DYOR
#BTC触及80000美元
According to Bitwise's latest data, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has surged to +0.50, a near 6-year high, while its correlation with the Nasdaq has fallen to a low of 0.30 $XAUT
Many people's first reaction is that the digital gold narrative has finally materialized, but I believe this is not Bitcoin changing; rather, it is the market's risk-off logic that has changed
In the past, institutions bought Bitcoin for its tech characteristics and upside potential. Now, they allocate to it purely out of anxiety over fiat currency depreciation and the expansion of U.S. debt. As the U.S. Treasury steps up Treasury buybacks, funds have simply started treating gold and Bitcoin as the same defensive combination. At the same time, unusual movement among coins held for more than 5 years is not a dump, but rather a deep rotation of holdings into institutional hands
Next prediction
In the short term, this high correlation is only temporary. Once macro liquidity floods the market, Bitcoin's high beta will again unleash gains far exceeding gold's. But in the long run, it has successfully crossed over and officially joined the safe-haven pool of global hard-currency assets
DYOR
#BTC触及80000美元
