#BTC Market Analysis 9/6
It moved up to 80k, then pulled back again. What’s missing now is not a single surge, but whether it can hold after being pushed up.
The rebound-short condition given yesterday has already appeared: the high in the early morning was 80167, then within 1 hour it fell back below 79900. But after that, the lowest only reached 79653, and the 78600 target was not hit, so the path cannot be considered complete.
Currently $BTC is around 79937. Today focus on two things:
Support is still there, but there has been no breakout yet.
The 4-hour EMA21 is near 79520, and yesterday’s low was 79405, forming a 79400-79500 support zone. Above, 80000-80300 still has not been firmly reclaimed. The 1-hour Bollinger Bands have narrowed, so this is currently a sideways range, not a one-way drop.
Price has rebounded slightly, but OI has fallen by about 1.5%.
This is more consistent with a repair during de-risking. It cannot yet confirm fresh long-side follow-through; likewise, there is no evidence that shorts are aggressively adding.
The Friday strong NFP-related rate hike concerns are still there, but on that day ETFs still saw a net inflow of about $175 million. Macro pressure does not mean spot buying has disappeared, which is also why it is not appropriate to chase shorts right now.
Today's main view: leaning toward a pullback, but new short entries should wait until support gives way.
Wait for the 4-hour candle to close below 79400, then if it rebounds to 79500-79800 and the 1-hour chart is rejected again, consider shorting. Stop loss at 80400, target first at 78600, and if that breaks, look toward 77400.
If 80300 is reclaimed first, cancel this short plan. Right now support has not broken and resistance has not been surpassed, so there is no need to force a trade around 79900.
Personal analysis only; please pay attention to position management.
It moved up to 80k, then pulled back again. What’s missing now is not a single surge, but whether it can hold after being pushed up.
The rebound-short condition given yesterday has already appeared: the high in the early morning was 80167, then within 1 hour it fell back below 79900. But after that, the lowest only reached 79653, and the 78600 target was not hit, so the path cannot be considered complete.
Currently $BTC is around 79937. Today focus on two things:
Support is still there, but there has been no breakout yet.
The 4-hour EMA21 is near 79520, and yesterday’s low was 79405, forming a 79400-79500 support zone. Above, 80000-80300 still has not been firmly reclaimed. The 1-hour Bollinger Bands have narrowed, so this is currently a sideways range, not a one-way drop.
Price has rebounded slightly, but OI has fallen by about 1.5%.
This is more consistent with a repair during de-risking. It cannot yet confirm fresh long-side follow-through; likewise, there is no evidence that shorts are aggressively adding.
The Friday strong NFP-related rate hike concerns are still there, but on that day ETFs still saw a net inflow of about $175 million. Macro pressure does not mean spot buying has disappeared, which is also why it is not appropriate to chase shorts right now.
Today's main view: leaning toward a pullback, but new short entries should wait until support gives way.
Wait for the 4-hour candle to close below 79400, then if it rebounds to 79500-79800 and the 1-hour chart is rejected again, consider shorting. Stop loss at 80400, target first at 78600, and if that breaks, look toward 77400.
If 80300 is reclaimed first, cancel this short plan. Right now support has not broken and resistance has not been surpassed, so there is no need to force a trade around 79900.
Personal analysis only; please pay attention to position management.
