$ASTS 24 hours down 4.417%, current price 62.32, funding rate 0, open interest 42513.51. The price is sliding but longs and shorts are balanced, and the market is waiting for the direction of a political event.
Such consolidation is common in political trading. A funding rate of 0 means neither longs nor shorts are willing to make the first move, and open interest has not surged, indicating that large money is still on the sidelines watching. Once regulatory policy or fiscal news is released, the price could quickly break out.
The strongest counterargument is that the political event is delayed or turns out to be unremarkable, in which case the price may continue drifting lower. On a second-order basis, if arbitrage funds misjudge the direction, they may be forced into stop-loss liquidation, amplifying volatility. Failure condition: if the price continues to shrink in volume within the 60-65 range for three days, then my judgment fails and I switch to waiting. In terms of action, I am not chasing the downside or buying the dip now. If it breaks above 65 and open interest increases, I go long, stop loss at 62, take profit at 70, position size 10%. If it breaks below 60, I go short, stop loss at 63, take profit at 55, position size 5%.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #ASTS
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?
Such consolidation is common in political trading. A funding rate of 0 means neither longs nor shorts are willing to make the first move, and open interest has not surged, indicating that large money is still on the sidelines watching. Once regulatory policy or fiscal news is released, the price could quickly break out.
The strongest counterargument is that the political event is delayed or turns out to be unremarkable, in which case the price may continue drifting lower. On a second-order basis, if arbitrage funds misjudge the direction, they may be forced into stop-loss liquidation, amplifying volatility. Failure condition: if the price continues to shrink in volume within the 60-65 range for three days, then my judgment fails and I switch to waiting. In terms of action, I am not chasing the downside or buying the dip now. If it breaks above 65 and open interest increases, I go long, stop loss at 62, take profit at 70, position size 10%. If it breaks below 60, I go short, stop loss at 63, take profit at 55, position size 5%.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #ASTS
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?