#BTC Market Analysis 9/5
A drop being bought does not mean it can keep rising next. The decline stopped last night, but the rebound has not yet recovered 80,000.
The nonfarm payrolls report released at 20:30 last night showed 162,000 new jobs, significantly above the market expectation of about 53,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Stronger-than-expected employment made the market worry again about interest-rate hikes, and funds that had bet on unchanged rates the day before started to pull back.
$BTC at 20:00, this 1-hour candlestick fell from 81,188 to 79,423, a drop of about 2.17%, then hit a low of 78,618. OI decreased by 4.26% over the past 24 hours, which is more consistent with a decline driven by de-risking/reduction in positions, and cannot be directly judged as a major increase in short positions.
Currently around 79,580. The 4-hour EMA21 at about 79,338 has held for now, but rebound volume is shrinking, and price is still below the 1-hour EMA21 and the Bollinger middle band at 79,850-80,020. My view is weak recovery; prioritize waiting to short on rebounds, and do not rush to buy.
If it rebounds to 79,900-80,300, and the 1-hour chart first rallies then pulls back, closing back below 79,900, then consider shorting. Stop loss at 81,400, first target 78,600; if broken, look for 77,400 and 76,800.
If it firmly breaks above 80,300 with increased volume, cancel this short setup. Do not chase shorts around 79,500; wait for the rebound to provide a better entry.
Personal market analysis, not investment advice.
A drop being bought does not mean it can keep rising next. The decline stopped last night, but the rebound has not yet recovered 80,000.
The nonfarm payrolls report released at 20:30 last night showed 162,000 new jobs, significantly above the market expectation of about 53,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Stronger-than-expected employment made the market worry again about interest-rate hikes, and funds that had bet on unchanged rates the day before started to pull back.
$BTC at 20:00, this 1-hour candlestick fell from 81,188 to 79,423, a drop of about 2.17%, then hit a low of 78,618. OI decreased by 4.26% over the past 24 hours, which is more consistent with a decline driven by de-risking/reduction in positions, and cannot be directly judged as a major increase in short positions.
Currently around 79,580. The 4-hour EMA21 at about 79,338 has held for now, but rebound volume is shrinking, and price is still below the 1-hour EMA21 and the Bollinger middle band at 79,850-80,020. My view is weak recovery; prioritize waiting to short on rebounds, and do not rush to buy.
If it rebounds to 79,900-80,300, and the 1-hour chart first rallies then pulls back, closing back below 79,900, then consider shorting. Stop loss at 81,400, first target 78,600; if broken, look for 77,400 and 76,800.
If it firmly breaks above 80,300 with increased volume, cancel this short setup. Do not chase shorts around 79,500; wait for the rebound to provide a better entry.
Personal market analysis, not investment advice.
