2026.9.4 Daily Crypto Market News Analysis

Today's most important change is that institutional capital has shifted from a “partial recovery” to a strong inflow, but it has not yet lifted overall market liquidity along with it. For ordinary holders, this raises my assessment of short-term support, but I still would not treat one day of strong buying as confirmation of a broad trend.

As of the latest complete data for September 3, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds that directly track the spot price) recorded net inflows of about $730.8 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of about $141.4 million, for a combined total of about $872.2 million. Daily net inflows like this help us observe whether traditional capital is continuing to add exposure. This time, it was not only a turn back to positive flows, but the scale also expanded significantly; in this snapshot, Bitcoin and Ethereum rose about 1.08% and 1.26% over 24 hours, respectively.

However, funding breadth remains divided. Decentralized exchange trading volume over the past seven days fell by about 17.63% compared with the previous seven days, indicating that on-chain trading demand is still contracting; the total value of assets locked in on-chain protocols (TVL) rose by about 0.79% over seven days, and stablecoin supply increased by about 0.318%, showing only a marginal rebound in capital. My view is that institutional buying has already formed a real positive shift, but on-chain activity has not yet provided confirmation at the same level. Over the next 24 to 72 hours, the more reasonable interpretation is “stronger absorption, breadth still to be tested,” rather than “all funding indicators have already moved in sync.”

The U.S. August employment data released just tonight adds another constraint to this main theme: nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year, and June and July payrolls were revised up by a combined 55,000. The median forecast before the release was only 56,000 new jobs, so this was a clearly stronger-than-expected employment report. It does not mean digital assets will immediately weaken, but it will dampen the market’s imagination of a rapid easing in monetary policy. Since the employment data was just released, I would not attribute every subsequent price move to it; what really needs to be watched is whether rate expectations continue to change, and whether ETF inflows can persist under tighter macro constraints.

Another change today that directly concerns user safety comes from Trezor’s update on the data breach at logistics provider ShipMonk. The company said that order records for another roughly 67,000 U.S. customers from November 2019 to August 2021 were leaked, including names, emails, phone numbers, addresses, and order numbers. Wallet devices, private keys, and backups were not compromised, but that does not mean the risk is small: attackers who know real identities and addresses can craft much more convincing emails, calls, or letters, and even extend the risk into the physical world. The official page still keeps the earlier figure of about 13,689 people, so I will not combine the two numbers into a precise total myself; users who received an official notice should remain vigilant in the long term against any request to disclose or enter wallet backup information online.

Next I will be watching three things: over the next one or two full trading days, whether Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows can continue to be net inflows in the same direction; whether stablecoin supply, total on-chain asset value, and decentralized exchange volume can expand together; and whether stronger employment continues to push up rate constraints. If the first two improve together, institutional capital recovery could upgrade into a broader liquidity trend; if ETF inflows quickly fade, or on-chain trading keeps shrinking, today is more likely just a very strong single-day absorption. The most important mistake to avoid is seeing only the $872 million inflow and ignoring macro constraints and on-chain divergence, and also not underestimating the precise scam risk created by order data leaks simply because the wallet itself is secure.

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