The latest August non-farm payroll report released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that新增就业人数 reached 162,000, far exceeding economists’ earlier expectation range of 53,000 to 56,000, and the July data was also revised upward. This strong employment report instantly ignited the derivatives market, with swap market data showing the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates on September 16 jumping directly from the previous 50% to above 61%.
From both a macro fundamentals and technical perspective, the surge in employment of nearly triple the expected level fully demonstrates the resilience of the U.S. labor market and the strong underlying momentum of the economy. Although this breaks the market’s short-term one-sided bet on a rapid easing of monetary policy, the solid macroeconomic performance completely dispels the market’s pessimistic worries about an economic recession, building fundamental support for a healthier upward cycle ahead.
After the data was released, traditional asset prices showed a typical impulsive reaction: the U.S. Dollar Index DXY rose 0.5% intraday to a high of 99.932, while EUR/USD fell to 1.1583; stock index futures showed short-term divergence and volatility, with Dow E-mini falling 152 points (-0.28%), S&P 500 E-mini declining 17.25 points (-0.22%), while Nasdaq 100 E-mini rose 0.07% against the trend, demonstrating relatively strong support for risk assets.
For the crypto market, $BTC and risk assets will, after short-term digestion of the liquidity revaluation brought by higher rate-hike odds, see the fundamental positives translated into medium-term long-side momentum. The absence of an economic recession means the favorable liquidity backdrop remains unchanged, and short-term technical shakeouts instead accumulate positioning for a larger-cycle breakout to the upside. As uncertainty gradually clears, crypto assets are expected to usher in a more sustainable structural bull market.
#fed #非农数据 #Crypto Market
From both a macro fundamentals and technical perspective, the surge in employment of nearly triple the expected level fully demonstrates the resilience of the U.S. labor market and the strong underlying momentum of the economy. Although this breaks the market’s short-term one-sided bet on a rapid easing of monetary policy, the solid macroeconomic performance completely dispels the market’s pessimistic worries about an economic recession, building fundamental support for a healthier upward cycle ahead.
After the data was released, traditional asset prices showed a typical impulsive reaction: the U.S. Dollar Index DXY rose 0.5% intraday to a high of 99.932, while EUR/USD fell to 1.1583; stock index futures showed short-term divergence and volatility, with Dow E-mini falling 152 points (-0.28%), S&P 500 E-mini declining 17.25 points (-0.22%), while Nasdaq 100 E-mini rose 0.07% against the trend, demonstrating relatively strong support for risk assets.
For the crypto market, $BTC and risk assets will, after short-term digestion of the liquidity revaluation brought by higher rate-hike odds, see the fundamental positives translated into medium-term long-side momentum. The absence of an economic recession means the favorable liquidity backdrop remains unchanged, and short-term technical shakeouts instead accumulate positioning for a larger-cycle breakout to the upside. As uncertainty gradually clears, crypto assets are expected to usher in a more sustainable structural bull market.
#fed #非农数据 #Crypto Market