The non-farm payroll data came in at 162,000, more than three times the expected number!
This afternoon I said it would first fall and then rebound, but I didn’t expect it to be this kind of situation --- a straight-line drop!
So this round of上涨 is completely over!
I’ve also said repeatedly in the past few days that now is the time to take profits on spot positions and go short on contracts.
This non-farm report almost locks in a rate hike by the Fed on the 17th; at the very least, Wosh will have to turn more hawkish too.
A rational forecast for the market over the next two years:
1. Starting now, it will fluctuate downward, bottoming out in October-December, with Bitcoin around 40,000.
2. From the end of this year to September-October 2027, it will be a bear-market range and shakeout. If a financial crisis does not occur, there will be no new low.
3. Starting at the end of 2027, bullish momentum will gradually build, and the fifth halving cycle will begin around April 2028.
Of course, all of this is based on one premise: there will not be a global financial crisis like the one in 2008 within the next year!
This afternoon I said it would first fall and then rebound, but I didn’t expect it to be this kind of situation --- a straight-line drop!
So this round of上涨 is completely over!
I’ve also said repeatedly in the past few days that now is the time to take profits on spot positions and go short on contracts.
This non-farm report almost locks in a rate hike by the Fed on the 17th; at the very least, Wosh will have to turn more hawkish too.
A rational forecast for the market over the next two years:
1. Starting now, it will fluctuate downward, bottoming out in October-December, with Bitcoin around 40,000.
2. From the end of this year to September-October 2027, it will be a bear-market range and shakeout. If a financial crisis does not occur, there will be no new low.
3. Starting at the end of 2027, bullish momentum will gradually build, and the fifth halving cycle will begin around April 2028.
Of course, all of this is based on one premise: there will not be a global financial crisis like the one in 2008 within the next year!
