Recently, $HOOD has been rising very strongly, but I feel the market may not have fully priced in the value of Robinhood Chain yet. Using two of the simplest methods to value Robinhood Chain separately, the fair HOOD price implied by both approaches ends up around $140–160, with the midpoint right around $150.
First, use HYPE directly as a benchmark. HYPE currently has a market cap of about $19B and annualized revenue of roughly $710M, which means the market is valuing it at about 27x revenue. Robinhood Chain generated $11.2M in revenue over the past 7 days, which annualizes to about $580M; at the same 27x multiple, that would be worth about $16B. HOOD’s current market cap is about $112B, so adding back that $16B implies a share price of roughly $142.
Second, an even simpler method is to value it based on existing public-chain valuations. SOL currently has a market cap of about $61B. If Robinhood Chain can ultimately reach only half of SOL’s value, that would be about $30B. Adding that $30B to HOOD implies roughly $34 of value per share, giving a fair share price of $159.
One method gives $142 based on revenue, and the other gives $159 based on half of SOL, with the midpoint landing right around $150. HOOD at $125 likely already reflects part of the Robinhood Chain expectation. If Robinhood Chain can keep gaining traction for a while and also pick up some sentiment premium, then $HOOD $150 may actually be a fairly normal case.
First, use HYPE directly as a benchmark. HYPE currently has a market cap of about $19B and annualized revenue of roughly $710M, which means the market is valuing it at about 27x revenue. Robinhood Chain generated $11.2M in revenue over the past 7 days, which annualizes to about $580M; at the same 27x multiple, that would be worth about $16B. HOOD’s current market cap is about $112B, so adding back that $16B implies a share price of roughly $142.
Second, an even simpler method is to value it based on existing public-chain valuations. SOL currently has a market cap of about $61B. If Robinhood Chain can ultimately reach only half of SOL’s value, that would be about $30B. Adding that $30B to HOOD implies roughly $34 of value per share, giving a fair share price of $159.
One method gives $142 based on revenue, and the other gives $159 based on half of SOL, with the midpoint landing right around $150. HOOD at $125 likely already reflects part of the Robinhood Chain expectation. If Robinhood Chain can keep gaining traction for a while and also pick up some sentiment premium, then $HOOD $150 may actually be a fairly normal case.
