LIT Today 19:30 just pushed the historical high up to 4.68. In three-day futures, the rise is nearly 30%. But within the same stretch of price action, spot has had twelve consecutive candlesticks over the past three hours with not a single positive bar—net outflow of 33.76 million. The new high was sold up all the way; this divergence is why I choose to go short.
For the past three hours, spot has net outflow of 33.76 million and all twelve bars are negative—this single point is enough to show the issue. The net inflow in the last 15 minutes is only about 0.4 million; compared to the outflow, it’s just a fraction, not money coming back in.
The contract side is also undermining things: basis turned negative, change is -90.91%, and the futures price is even at a discount versus spot. The ratio of aggressive buys to sells is 0.998—no one is chasing the buy. Over the past ~7 hours, open interest has basically not moved. The whale accounts’ long exposure share jumped by 13%, yet the position allocation only shifted by 0.15%—the account is calling for longs, but the real capital didn’t follow.
So at this level, I choose to short. Let’s be honest about the risk: momentum is too smooth and OI from the previous day expanded by another 20%, so any short position must include a stop-loss. The reversal signal would be spot three-hour capital turning positive and the price breaking above 4.68 with volume expansion—then I’ll admit I’m wrong and switch to going long. Now #lit $LIT I’m looking for a short entry point while price is running up.
For the past three hours, spot has net outflow of 33.76 million and all twelve bars are negative—this single point is enough to show the issue. The net inflow in the last 15 minutes is only about 0.4 million; compared to the outflow, it’s just a fraction, not money coming back in.
The contract side is also undermining things: basis turned negative, change is -90.91%, and the futures price is even at a discount versus spot. The ratio of aggressive buys to sells is 0.998—no one is chasing the buy. Over the past ~7 hours, open interest has basically not moved. The whale accounts’ long exposure share jumped by 13%, yet the position allocation only shifted by 0.15%—the account is calling for longs, but the real capital didn’t follow.
So at this level, I choose to short. Let’s be honest about the risk: momentum is too smooth and OI from the previous day expanded by another 20%, so any short position must include a stop-loss. The reversal signal would be spot three-hour capital turning positive and the price breaking above 4.68 with volume expansion—then I’ll admit I’m wrong and switch to going long. Now #lit $LIT I’m looking for a short entry point while price is running up.
