Don’t just see a top divergence and immediately decide the market is finished
@链上猎豹手记
Many retail traders have stepped into a trap recently: the moment they see the indicators turning bearish, they become convinced that this uptrend in BTC has completely ended. But this thinking is actually one-sided.

The medium-term reversal structure has already been confirmed. $BTC directly broke through the long-standing downward pressure before, and it has held above the 60,000–66,000 trading range. This is no longer just a brief rebound within a bear market.
Now the key contradiction is what changed after the second attempt above 82,000: technical indicator momentum has started to weaken, futures contract positions are continuously increasing, and a large amount of leveraged capital is chasing at the highs. If the spot buying fails to keep up, high-level consolidation can easily turn into mutual liquidation and a stop-hunt.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万
A short-term drop doesn’t mean the entire bull cycle is directly over. Look back at previous historical patterns: after a single week of big gains, the probability of continuing to push higher remains high. It’s just that along the way there will inevitably be a pullback with a fairly significant magnitude. Institutions’ ETFs are still steadily absorbing supply; in the bigger picture, the near-term environment is tilted toward geopolitics.