Assuming Trump dies, what would be the impact on the stock market and the crypto market?
Trump’s policies are rate cuts, boosting the stock market, and being crypto-friendly
1. In terms of governance
According to the U.S. Constitution, Vice President JD Vance would immediately take office and serve through January 2029. He would then nominate a new vice president, subject to congressional confirmation.
The vice president would most likely continue Trump’s policy agenda.
2. Stock market
The S&P 500 could drop by more than 3% right away. Exchanges would most likely impose a brief trading halt or close early.
Historical references:
On the day of the 1963 assassination of Kennedy, the S&P fell by about 2.8% and the NYSE closed early; the next trading day, the Dow rebounded by roughly 4.5%.
After the 1981 assassination attempt against Reagan, once his survival was confirmed, there was a recovery in the following days.
On the day of McKinley’s assassination in 1901, the drop was even larger (around 6%) because the market believed the successor’s anti-trust policies would limit capital and the growth of big industry players.
3. Crypto market
Crypto trades 24 hours a day with no circuit breakers. Bitcoin’s drop could exceed 10%, while altcoins could fall by more than 20%.
4. Gold and the Japanese yen rise
Capital flows into gold and the yen for safe-haven purposes
$TRUMP
Trump’s policies are rate cuts, boosting the stock market, and being crypto-friendly
1. In terms of governance
According to the U.S. Constitution, Vice President JD Vance would immediately take office and serve through January 2029. He would then nominate a new vice president, subject to congressional confirmation.
The vice president would most likely continue Trump’s policy agenda.
2. Stock market
The S&P 500 could drop by more than 3% right away. Exchanges would most likely impose a brief trading halt or close early.
Historical references:
On the day of the 1963 assassination of Kennedy, the S&P fell by about 2.8% and the NYSE closed early; the next trading day, the Dow rebounded by roughly 4.5%.
After the 1981 assassination attempt against Reagan, once his survival was confirmed, there was a recovery in the following days.
On the day of McKinley’s assassination in 1901, the drop was even larger (around 6%) because the market believed the successor’s anti-trust policies would limit capital and the growth of big industry players.
3. Crypto market
Crypto trades 24 hours a day with no circuit breakers. Bitcoin’s drop could exceed 10%, while altcoins could fall by more than 20%.
4. Gold and the Japanese yen rise
Capital flows into gold and the yen for safe-haven purposes
$TRUMP
