Tonight Beijing time at 20:30, the figure to be released is August Non-Farm Payrolls. This set of data is not likely to trigger another major market swing on its own; it looks more like a preliminary signal for how the FOMC will be positioned on September 15–16. Inflation is the Fed’s key anchor right now. Only if employment deteriorates noticeably would the Fed make a standalone change to its interest-rate path.
The market expects an increase of about 55,000 jobs, the unemployment rate at 4.1%, and year-over-year wage growth of around 3.0%.
For the Fed, employment is no longer the main anchor—it's inflation that is. Waller said that if inflation cools, he would lean toward holding rates steady in September. It’s hard for Non-Farm Payrolls to independently lead to a rate hike or cut; the true deciding factor is next week’s CPI.
The scenarios are simple:
If it meets expectations: choppy/sideways trading, and the market waits for CPI.
If it’s weaker, and the unemployment rate rises to 4.2%: rate-hike pricing would ease; gold, silver, and BTC would benefit in the short term.
$BTC
$ETH
The market expects an increase of about 55,000 jobs, the unemployment rate at 4.1%, and year-over-year wage growth of around 3.0%.
For the Fed, employment is no longer the main anchor—it's inflation that is. Waller said that if inflation cools, he would lean toward holding rates steady in September. It’s hard for Non-Farm Payrolls to independently lead to a rate hike or cut; the true deciding factor is next week’s CPI.
The scenarios are simple:
If it meets expectations: choppy/sideways trading, and the market waits for CPI.
If it’s weaker, and the unemployment rate rises to 4.2%: rate-hike pricing would ease; gold, silver, and BTC would benefit in the short term.
$BTC
$ETH
