$NVDL 24 hours up 4.355%, price at 37.38, funding rate -0.00056346, and shorts are paying longs. Political and military events always cause the market to overreact; this time the shorts may have overreached.
A negative funding rate with rising price is a classic short squeeze setup. The shorts are crowded and stubbornly holding on there, while the longs are essentially getting paid rent for free. As soon as buyers push a little, the short liquidation wall can get ignited. The last time a similar setup happened was at the end of last year—before the price topped out, it was also pulled with the negative funding rates ramped up.
The counterargument is that if geopolitical tension eases and risk appetite returns, shorts might re-enter to pressure the price lower. But the second-order effect is clear: forced short covering would accelerate the price increase, temporarily locking liquidity in this contract.
Invalidation is simple: if the funding rate turns positive or the price breaks below 37.38, the short squeeze logic is gone. I’m directly going long with 3x leverage, setting a stop loss below 37. If the close can’t hold above this level, I’ll撤.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #NVDL
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
A negative funding rate with rising price is a classic short squeeze setup. The shorts are crowded and stubbornly holding on there, while the longs are essentially getting paid rent for free. As soon as buyers push a little, the short liquidation wall can get ignited. The last time a similar setup happened was at the end of last year—before the price topped out, it was also pulled with the negative funding rates ramped up.
The counterargument is that if geopolitical tension eases and risk appetite returns, shorts might re-enter to pressure the price lower. But the second-order effect is clear: forced short covering would accelerate the price increase, temporarily locking liquidity in this contract.
Invalidation is simple: if the funding rate turns positive or the price breaks below 37.38, the short squeeze logic is gone. I’m directly going long with 3x leverage, setting a stop loss below 37. If the close can’t hold above this level, I’ll撤.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #NVDL
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?