I have a hunch: the script for the next bull market might not be retail rushing in, and it might not be institutions rushing in either—it could be that the national team quietly enters the market first. By the time ordinary people react, the price will already have climbed to the halfway point up the mountain:
In the past four cycles, each round of Bitcoin has relied on a new story to pull in fresh money; in 2013 it was about safe-haven demand, in 2017 it was ICOs, in 2020 it was listed companies buying coins, and in 2024 it was ETFs. Next time, the story will be upgraded to a higher level: sovereign nations begin to treat Bitcoin as strategic reserves.
Now there’s already discussion in the U.S. about building strategic Bitcoin reserves, and related legislation is moving forward. If at some future time the U.S. Treasury were to announce that we’re buying 200,000 Bitcoins as strategic reserves, then the nature of it would change completely.
Global foreign exchange reserves are roughly $12 trillion. Even if just 1% is shifted into Bitcoin, that’s a $120 billion buy order. And after the Bitcoin halving, the amount mined newly in one year is under 160,000. At $100,000 per coin, that’s only about $16 billion in new sell pressure. Demand would be 7 to 8 times the new supply.
Once the U.S. moves, sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, Russia, the BRICS countries, and even some smaller Asian nations would likely quietly follow—afraid of missing out, afraid they’ll end up being the last ones seated at the table. So the most likely headline for the next round is that some major country begins buying Bitcoin. I think the most likely time window would be in 2027–2028.
The above views are purely personal speculation and do not constitute investment advice
#CLARITY法案2026年立法概率15%
In the past four cycles, each round of Bitcoin has relied on a new story to pull in fresh money; in 2013 it was about safe-haven demand, in 2017 it was ICOs, in 2020 it was listed companies buying coins, and in 2024 it was ETFs. Next time, the story will be upgraded to a higher level: sovereign nations begin to treat Bitcoin as strategic reserves.
Now there’s already discussion in the U.S. about building strategic Bitcoin reserves, and related legislation is moving forward. If at some future time the U.S. Treasury were to announce that we’re buying 200,000 Bitcoins as strategic reserves, then the nature of it would change completely.
Global foreign exchange reserves are roughly $12 trillion. Even if just 1% is shifted into Bitcoin, that’s a $120 billion buy order. And after the Bitcoin halving, the amount mined newly in one year is under 160,000. At $100,000 per coin, that’s only about $16 billion in new sell pressure. Demand would be 7 to 8 times the new supply.
Once the U.S. moves, sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, Russia, the BRICS countries, and even some smaller Asian nations would likely quietly follow—afraid of missing out, afraid they’ll end up being the last ones seated at the table. So the most likely headline for the next round is that some major country begins buying Bitcoin. I think the most likely time window would be in 2027–2028.
The above views are purely personal speculation and do not constitute investment advice
#CLARITY法案2026年立法概率15%
