$SPCX is up 5.6% today; the price has been pushed to 147.9, with trading volume at $1.7B—not small. The key is funding rates: -0.00025. The shorts are still paying money to the longs.
This setup is a textbook short squeeze. When price is pulled upward and the funding rate is negative, it means the short positions are bleeding—they either keep holding their costs and waiting, or they accept the loss and close out. Closing out itself becomes buy pressure and can continue to push the price higher. If there’s any additional bullish news from Trump’s side about traditional industries or manufacturing, the on-chain US stock contracts will react most directly and sentiment will be amplified.
The shorts are in a very passive position right now. Open interest is still at 3.2 million contracts, which suggests there hasn’t been a large-scale exodus; the squeeze may not be over yet. But the negative funding rate also attracts arbitrageurs to come in and open longs to earn the funding. Those longs can exit at any time, becoming potential sell pressure.
My view is that this rally hasn’t finished yet; the cost for the shorts holding on is accumulating. However, this isn’t a comfortable spot to enter. A negative funding value means the risk-reward (for chasing longs) has already deteriorated.
My plan: place a long order at 146.5, stop-loss at 144, and first take-profit at the 150 integer level. I’ll use only 10% of my position—this is trading based on sentiment, and I can keep the position light enough to withstand volatility. If the price directly breaks below 144, it means the shorts are mounting a comeback—this squeeze has failed. I’ll promptly admit the mistake and exit.
Trading label: #TradFi #链上美股 #SPCX
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
This setup is a textbook short squeeze. When price is pulled upward and the funding rate is negative, it means the short positions are bleeding—they either keep holding their costs and waiting, or they accept the loss and close out. Closing out itself becomes buy pressure and can continue to push the price higher. If there’s any additional bullish news from Trump’s side about traditional industries or manufacturing, the on-chain US stock contracts will react most directly and sentiment will be amplified.
The shorts are in a very passive position right now. Open interest is still at 3.2 million contracts, which suggests there hasn’t been a large-scale exodus; the squeeze may not be over yet. But the negative funding rate also attracts arbitrageurs to come in and open longs to earn the funding. Those longs can exit at any time, becoming potential sell pressure.
My view is that this rally hasn’t finished yet; the cost for the shorts holding on is accumulating. However, this isn’t a comfortable spot to enter. A negative funding value means the risk-reward (for chasing longs) has already deteriorated.
My plan: place a long order at 146.5, stop-loss at 144, and first take-profit at the 150 integer level. I’ll use only 10% of my position—this is trading based on sentiment, and I can keep the position light enough to withstand volatility. If the price directly breaks below 144, it means the shorts are mounting a comeback—this squeeze has failed. I’ll promptly admit the mistake and exit.
Trading label: #TradFi #链上美股 #SPCX
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?