$SPCX Current price 147.9, up 5.65% in the last 24 hours. Check the funding rate: -0.00025423—shorts are paying longs every day.
This structure is a classic short squeeze closed loop. Price is running upward, but shorts are footing the bill, which means the short positions are heavy and their direction is wrong—yet they haven’t admitted defeat, so they’re still bleeding. Open interest is 3.21 million, trading volume is 1.7 billion, and liquidity isn’t bad; it’s enough to let shorts slowly cut losses.
The biggest variable is Trump. One random tweet about tech stocks or traditional energy can instantly change TradFi sentiment. If he posts good news, the shorts will die faster. If he posts bad news—like threatening to add tariffs—the shorts immediately counterattack. This negative funding rate means longs are basically holding positions for almost free, while shorts are betting that Trump will post bad news tomorrow.
The strongest counterevidence: Trump suddenly fired back tonight, saying he wants to crack down on Wall Street speculation. Then the logic of this $SPCX short squeeze round would fail instantly, and shorts would go crazy adding to their positions.
Second-order effect: If Trump stays quiet, shorts get continuously squeezed; the forced liquidations would push the price above 155. But around 160, the longs would see a large stream of profit-taking, and the cost basis of positions there would be completely different from now.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SPCX
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
This structure is a classic short squeeze closed loop. Price is running upward, but shorts are footing the bill, which means the short positions are heavy and their direction is wrong—yet they haven’t admitted defeat, so they’re still bleeding. Open interest is 3.21 million, trading volume is 1.7 billion, and liquidity isn’t bad; it’s enough to let shorts slowly cut losses.
The biggest variable is Trump. One random tweet about tech stocks or traditional energy can instantly change TradFi sentiment. If he posts good news, the shorts will die faster. If he posts bad news—like threatening to add tariffs—the shorts immediately counterattack. This negative funding rate means longs are basically holding positions for almost free, while shorts are betting that Trump will post bad news tomorrow.
The strongest counterevidence: Trump suddenly fired back tonight, saying he wants to crack down on Wall Street speculation. Then the logic of this $SPCX short squeeze round would fail instantly, and shorts would go crazy adding to their positions.
Second-order effect: If Trump stays quiet, shorts get continuously squeezed; the forced liquidations would push the price above 155. But around 160, the longs would see a large stream of profit-taking, and the cost basis of positions there would be completely different from now.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SPCX
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?