📊 U.S. initial jobless claims edge higher; continuing claims fall short of expectations
The latest employment data released on September 3 shows the U.S. labor market remains in a balance of “low hiring and low layoffs.”
📈 Initial jobless claims: Slightly higher, still at low levels
For the week ending August 29, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. came in at 206,000, slightly above the market expectation of 205,000. The prior figure was revised from 203,000 to 204,000.
Initial jobless claims are a measure of layoffs. Over the past year, the initial claims data has largely stayed within the historic low range of 200,000 to 230,000. Companies still appear reluctant to carry out large-scale layoffs, and they are also not in a rush to hire new workers. This has created what economists call a “no hiring, no layoffs” labor market.
📉 Continuing jobless claims: Drops more than expected
For the week ending August 22, the number of people receiving continuing unemployment benefits in the U.S. was 1.779 million, below the market expectation of 1.795 million. The prior figure was 1.778 million.
Continuing jobless claims reflect how quickly unemployed people find new jobs. The data’s bigger-than-expected drop suggests the pace of reemployment after unemployment has accelerated, and labor absorption remains strong.
💡 What does this mean for the Fed?
Taken together, the two reports show that layoffs have not worsened (initial claims remain low) and that the job-finding pace for the unemployed is improving (continuing claims are below expectations).
However, pressure for a September rate hike has not eased as a result. CME FedWatch shows market pricing for a September rate increase remains elevated at 66%-68%. The key variable driving expectations of a rate hike is the jump in oil prices that is lifting inflation expectations—not loosening conditions in the labor market.
The real test is on Friday. Market attention has quickly shifted to the August nonfarm payroll report scheduled for September 4—if the nonfarm data comes in strong, the probability of a September rate hike could continue to rise; if the data is weak, markets may reprice the rate-hike path.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万
#美国续请失业金人数降至177.9万
The latest employment data released on September 3 shows the U.S. labor market remains in a balance of “low hiring and low layoffs.”
📈 Initial jobless claims: Slightly higher, still at low levels
For the week ending August 29, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. came in at 206,000, slightly above the market expectation of 205,000. The prior figure was revised from 203,000 to 204,000.
Initial jobless claims are a measure of layoffs. Over the past year, the initial claims data has largely stayed within the historic low range of 200,000 to 230,000. Companies still appear reluctant to carry out large-scale layoffs, and they are also not in a rush to hire new workers. This has created what economists call a “no hiring, no layoffs” labor market.
📉 Continuing jobless claims: Drops more than expected
For the week ending August 22, the number of people receiving continuing unemployment benefits in the U.S. was 1.779 million, below the market expectation of 1.795 million. The prior figure was 1.778 million.
Continuing jobless claims reflect how quickly unemployed people find new jobs. The data’s bigger-than-expected drop suggests the pace of reemployment after unemployment has accelerated, and labor absorption remains strong.
💡 What does this mean for the Fed?
Taken together, the two reports show that layoffs have not worsened (initial claims remain low) and that the job-finding pace for the unemployed is improving (continuing claims are below expectations).
However, pressure for a September rate hike has not eased as a result. CME FedWatch shows market pricing for a September rate increase remains elevated at 66%-68%. The key variable driving expectations of a rate hike is the jump in oil prices that is lifting inflation expectations—not loosening conditions in the labor market.
The real test is on Friday. Market attention has quickly shifted to the August nonfarm payroll report scheduled for September 4—if the nonfarm data comes in strong, the probability of a September rate hike could continue to rise; if the data is weak, markets may reprice the rate-hike path.
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万
#美国续请失业金人数降至177.9万
