Gold market outlook: Small non-farm data sparks an oversold rebound; there is bargain-buying value in the dense support zone below
From the gold daily line level, after the price experienced a previous rapid sell-off, it then saw a strong oversold rebound bullish candle accompanied by a noticeably enlarged volume histogram. If the subsequent price action can successfully reclaim the previous day’s large bearish candle, the bullish structure will be further strengthened.
In the prior analysis, although my projection for the depth of gold’s pullback leaned toward a shallow adjustment, the actual price action pushed further down to the extreme area around $4,300. However, the strong oversold rebound that followed fully matches the underlying logic of how price moves. The current price range is not only the dense consolidation zone where earlier positions were actively traded, but it also features a price gap, forming extremely strong technical support and bargain-buying value.
Looking ahead: After successfully regaining lost ground, gold should at least see a continuation of a bullish trend, or remain in a consolidation buildup pattern in the mid-to-high range.
Bitcoin market breakdown: Key-level long/short battle; CVD bottom divergence triggers a precise rebound
Back to the Bitcoin chart: On the daily chart, it closed with a doji that has a long lower wick, indicating that there is fairly solid spot-buying support below. However, within smaller timeframe cycles, the market structure remains complex—so never let your guard down.
Previously, on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, a key head-and-shoulders top pattern formed. After price first broke below the neckline and bounced but failed, the chart showed the typical “kill the longs” method—once again slipping under the prior swing low on the left side to flush out high-leverage long positions, followed by a rapid surge. But when the rebound rallied back near the prior resistance area, price again showed signs of getting stuck.
Combining order-book data and the macro backdrop, this oversold rebound was mainly driven by two factors:
Improving macro expectations: The U.S. ADP “mini Non-Farm” report showed new jobs of only 38,000, the lowest single-month increase since the start of this year. Weakness in the job market directly eases concerns about ongoing rate hikes. The cooling expectations provide macro “ammunition” for a rebound in risk assets.
Order-book divergence and short “fuel”: In yesterday’s video analysis, it was clearly pointed out that CVD (cumulative volume delta) showed a bottom divergence. When price made new lows or stayed at low levels, CVD kept declining, indicating that a large number of shorts were chasing shorts at low levels—at the same time, there were resting limit buy orders in the spot order book absorbing the selling pressure. The short positions that chased selling ultimately became the “fuel” for this rebound. Along with spot buying, they pushed this upswing.
VIP community live-record: Based on a comprehensive judgment from technical signals of breakdown/reclaim, order-book CVD bottom divergence, and rising open interest (OI), we accurately captured the order-book signals of this round in the community. We promptly issued guidance, redeployed long positions, and successfully captured the profit from this rebound.
Bitcoin outlook: The ETF fund flow outflow alarm has been triggered. Focus on the key levels of $77,000 and $79,500.
Right now, the Bitcoin price is at a very delicate crossroads: above, it faces double suppression from the 1-hour EMA Vegas channel and the neckline of a head-and-shoulders top. Below, there is also a small timeframe head-and-shoulders bottom pattern.
Although the daily chart’s big lower-wick doji suggests that rebound momentum is still present, multiple market indicators have already issued warning signals:
·Market sentiment and premium: Retail bullish sentiment is at a high level, while Coinbase’s negative premium rate has not shown any meaningful improvement.
·Danger signal from ETF flows: Spot ETFs have broken the previously strong momentum of net inflows for two straight weeks. In recent times, net outflows have frequently appeared, reflecting that some institutions and large holders are closing positions and taking profit at higher levels; buying momentum has clearly weakened.
·Major event window: On Friday, the upcoming “Big Non-Farm” (Nonfarm Payrolls) data will be released, along with the upcoming U.S. midterm election factors, which will deliver a major shock to U.S. stocks, gold, and the crypto market.
In terms of strategy and response:
·If the price rebounds and breaks above the current resistance, it will be constrained by weakness in the ETF data; around $79,500 lies a zone facing extremely strong sell pressure and a high likelihood of rejection.
·If price cannot break through the upper rail effectively, or if it falls back below the key support of $77,000, then given the large profit-taking from earlier, the combined impact of rate-hike expectations, and the Nonfarm payrolls data, the market is likely to face a quick and deep pullback. The downside targets would look toward $75,000 and even $72,000.
Trading advice: Most of my short-term contract long positions have already been taken profit on and closed. As for the spot holdings accumulated via DCA in the $59,000–$61,000 range earlier, I will continue to hold firmly for the long term. For short-term traders, it is essential to stay cautious at current levels and watch out for the risk of a pullback from higher levels.
Key U.S. stock to watch: After Micron’s valuation gets “cut” through, it becomes an excellent configuration point. Fundamentals strongly support the medium to long term.
Against the backdrop of overall weakness in U.S. stocks due to rising long-end yields and the “valuation squeeze” affecting tech stocks, Micron’s (Micron) independent performance is worth close attention. Pullbacks caused by macro pressure precisely create a good opportunity to pick up high-quality assets with strong fundamentals at attractive prices.
From a technical perspective, after Micron surged to a high in June and then pulled back nearly 40%, it completed a selloff bottoming process around $700 and broke above a descending trendline in one move. After reaching a peak around $1,000 to set a new stage high, the current price is building an extremely solid support base around $910. Overall, it is in the late stage of a converging triangle consolidation, and the certainty of an upside breakout in the medium to long term is very high.
Micron’s core investment logic is:
AI demand locked in: AI has moved from the training stage into the large-scale application deployment phase. With concurrent demands across multiple endpoints, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM have become indispensable core production inputs. As Dell’s COO recently emphasized publicly, the biggest limiting factor in producing AI servers is DRAM—exactly Micron’s absolute strength.
Valuation at an extreme historical low: Micron’s PEG is currently only about 0.2–0.3, far below the industry average, giving the valuation a very high margin of safety. At present, 31 Wall Street analysts have already issued “Strong Buy” ratings.
Trading strategy: Although Micron may see volatility due to earnings-related digestion in the short term, and the effects of the midterm election and the Fed’s hawkish stance in the medium term, for this kind of global blue-chip stock, it’s recommended to use a staged DCA approach. If the price pulls back again into the $910–$920 range, that would be an ideal opportunity to add and initiate a position.
As for the recent altcoin catalyst: with the negative impact from SUI’s large unlocks fully digested, a 2B reversal structure has appeared, suggesting it may bottom out and then play catch-up with an upside lag. The short-term long bias has already formed. Since the Bitcoin broader market faces significant resistance near higher levels, it is not advisable to chase aggressively; risk control based on the broader market’s mainstream assets should remain the top priority.
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