In the past 24 hours, it surged 9.248%, with the price stalling at 158.3—this kind of move is definitely eye-catching in US stock perpetual contracts. But when Old Dog glanced at the funding rate, it was only 0.00001302, far less than one ten-thousandth. Take another look at the open interest: 2023.09. With such a strong rally, yet the funding rate and open interest change so restrained—something feels off.
Core judgment: A near-10% jump in a single day, paired with the lowest-tier positive funding rate on the market, suggests this isn’t a crowded squeeze driven by rampant long enthusiasm. It looks more like a rapid upward move in a liquidity vacuum—either shorts are closing their positions, or the price is climbing quickly ahead of some key level. The price rises, but the funding rate doesn’t. That means either new longs aren’t very eager to open positions, or the existing shorts are withdrawing passively. The open interest figure itself can’t be interpreted on its own—because I don’t have the change in open interest from 24 hours prior for comparison. So I can only read it as numbers, together with the combination of price and funding rate. Price is up, funding is positive, and the absolute value of open interest is small. All three signals point to the same kind of not-very-stable structure: the rally lacks aggressive new capital piling in.
So Old Dog’s view is that the persistence of this pull-up is questionable. Everyone says $RDDT has already had all the good news and should pull back, but I disagree—because it hasn’t actually gone through the traditional buildup of “good news.” This rally looks more like a technical event than something driven by sentiment or a资金共识 (capital consensus). With the funding rate near zero, it means neither side is paying the other; this rally didn’t force longs to incur extra costs, and therefore it hasn’t accumulated the kind of situation that would squeeze out profitable longs. On the contrary, this suggests the short-side strength is relatively weak—or that they’ve already surrendered—because price can move, but the funding rate won’t.
Then next: if the price can hold above 150, those shorts that got off mid-way and longs that were watching might reassess and become new buying power. The cost bearers would be the new longs who are seeing the rise now and FOMO-ing in—their entry locations could end up being the current liquidity levels.
My actions are very clear: as long as the price stays above 150, I’ll keep an observational light position—no adding, no trimming. What truly triggers my move is whether the price can break through the 160 level with volume. If it breaks, it would mean the low-funding rally may evolve into a trend, and I’ll consider adding. If the price turns and falls back below 150, I’ll exit immediately, because that would prove the 9% surge was just a technical rebound from short covering, lacking support.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #RDDT #RDDTUSDT $RDDT
Core judgment: A near-10% jump in a single day, paired with the lowest-tier positive funding rate on the market, suggests this isn’t a crowded squeeze driven by rampant long enthusiasm. It looks more like a rapid upward move in a liquidity vacuum—either shorts are closing their positions, or the price is climbing quickly ahead of some key level. The price rises, but the funding rate doesn’t. That means either new longs aren’t very eager to open positions, or the existing shorts are withdrawing passively. The open interest figure itself can’t be interpreted on its own—because I don’t have the change in open interest from 24 hours prior for comparison. So I can only read it as numbers, together with the combination of price and funding rate. Price is up, funding is positive, and the absolute value of open interest is small. All three signals point to the same kind of not-very-stable structure: the rally lacks aggressive new capital piling in.
So Old Dog’s view is that the persistence of this pull-up is questionable. Everyone says $RDDT has already had all the good news and should pull back, but I disagree—because it hasn’t actually gone through the traditional buildup of “good news.” This rally looks more like a technical event than something driven by sentiment or a资金共识 (capital consensus). With the funding rate near zero, it means neither side is paying the other; this rally didn’t force longs to incur extra costs, and therefore it hasn’t accumulated the kind of situation that would squeeze out profitable longs. On the contrary, this suggests the short-side strength is relatively weak—or that they’ve already surrendered—because price can move, but the funding rate won’t.
Then next: if the price can hold above 150, those shorts that got off mid-way and longs that were watching might reassess and become new buying power. The cost bearers would be the new longs who are seeing the rise now and FOMO-ing in—their entry locations could end up being the current liquidity levels.
My actions are very clear: as long as the price stays above 150, I’ll keep an observational light position—no adding, no trimming. What truly triggers my move is whether the price can break through the 160 level with volume. If it breaks, it would mean the low-funding rally may evolve into a trend, and I’ll consider adding. If the price turns and falls back below 150, I’ll exit immediately, because that would prove the 9% surge was just a technical rebound from short covering, lacking support.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #RDDT #RDDTUSDT $RDDT