BTC deadline 77466.8. As of Aug 19, the 4H candle was still at 64163.6; on the 28th the high reached 81499.9. In nine days it rose by about 27%. Afterwards it first dropped to 76888 on the 28th, and yesterday it set another low at 76261. The current price is right around 77500.
The engine’s main count is still that 5-wave advance from the Aug 1–5 group, with the endpoint at 65026.6. The current price is no longer within that window. Is this high-range box moving the floor down by one step, or has the Aug jump already finished?
See the cover for the structure diagram. Take 300 4H candles. As of 2026-09-03 00:00 UTC, the current K candle has not finished yet. The engine is elliott-r123-v2, and the hard rules come from Frost & Prechter’s R1, R2, R3. Confidence is medium. Wave counts are not unique, so the main count and the near-term swings should be viewed separately. Current price and market cap come from OKX spot plus CoinGecko. 4H deadline 77466.8; spot is about 77412; 24h is about +0.2%; circulating market cap is about $1.55 trillion. All-time high 126080; drawdown about 39%.
【Engine pinned to the old window in early August】
The main count is the impulsive wave moving upward. R1, R2, R3 all passed, score 13. The window is counted from the Aug 1 low 62268.5 to the Aug 5 high 65026.6. The three impulsive sub-waves’ lengths are about 1531, 2243, and 1146, with the third wave the longest. Engine Fib 0.618 is at 64318. Current price is 77467—about 13k away.
The alternative is ABC, with a score of only 2. The old window can only indicate that early August completed a qualifying impulse cycle; it can’t be used to set pricing for 77500. The takeoff low from the jump on Aug 19—64163.6—happens to land near the old window.
【After the Aug jump, where does it stand】
The 4H sample high is at 81499.9 at 00:00 on Aug 28. The swing low before the takeoff is 64163.6 at 04:00 on Aug 19. From 64163.6 to the high, it’s about +27.0%.
First look at the pullback from 64163.6 to 81499.9. In that segment, Fib 0.382 is 74877, 0.5 is 72832, and 0.618 is 70786. Yesterday’s low 76261 is still above 74877.
The near-term box has already changed its floor. The Aug 28 pullback low 76888 and the Aug 30 low 77000 were both broken by the drop to 76261 at 08:00 on Sep 2. From the Aug 30 high 79401.4 down to 76261, Fib 0.382 is at 77461. The 4H deadline price 77466.8 is sitting on this line. The near-term swings are 79401.4, 77000, 79256, and 76261. The sample high 81499.9 is still above.
【How to use it】
The old box’s 76888 is already gone. Near-term first watch 77461 to 76261. If 76261 is lost, below it is the Aug 23 low 75559.5, and only then is the next level the larger-degree Fib 0.382 at 74877. To invalidate this pullback segment, you’d need to first reclaim 79256, then reclaim 79401.4, and finally reclaim 81499.9.
4H false breakout long. The old window’s 64318 is now only for reference, not an anchor for placing orders right in front of you.
Do you trust that it’s still consolidating below 81500 and that 76261 can hold, or do you trust that the Aug 28 candle already finished and the box is ready to open downward? Recheck 76261 and report the invalidation level.
$BTC #波浪理论 #比特币 #BTC
Captain Dragonfly｜A finance blogger who likes analyzing data and candlesticks.
Not investment advice. Wave counting is only for structural observation. The current 4H candle has not finished yet.
The engine’s main count is still that 5-wave advance from the Aug 1–5 group, with the endpoint at 65026.6. The current price is no longer within that window. Is this high-range box moving the floor down by one step, or has the Aug jump already finished?
See the cover for the structure diagram. Take 300 4H candles. As of 2026-09-03 00:00 UTC, the current K candle has not finished yet. The engine is elliott-r123-v2, and the hard rules come from Frost & Prechter’s R1, R2, R3. Confidence is medium. Wave counts are not unique, so the main count and the near-term swings should be viewed separately. Current price and market cap come from OKX spot plus CoinGecko. 4H deadline 77466.8; spot is about 77412; 24h is about +0.2%; circulating market cap is about $1.55 trillion. All-time high 126080; drawdown about 39%.
【Engine pinned to the old window in early August】
The main count is the impulsive wave moving upward. R1, R2, R3 all passed, score 13. The window is counted from the Aug 1 low 62268.5 to the Aug 5 high 65026.6. The three impulsive sub-waves’ lengths are about 1531, 2243, and 1146, with the third wave the longest. Engine Fib 0.618 is at 64318. Current price is 77467—about 13k away.
The alternative is ABC, with a score of only 2. The old window can only indicate that early August completed a qualifying impulse cycle; it can’t be used to set pricing for 77500. The takeoff low from the jump on Aug 19—64163.6—happens to land near the old window.
【After the Aug jump, where does it stand】
The 4H sample high is at 81499.9 at 00:00 on Aug 28. The swing low before the takeoff is 64163.6 at 04:00 on Aug 19. From 64163.6 to the high, it’s about +27.0%.
First look at the pullback from 64163.6 to 81499.9. In that segment, Fib 0.382 is 74877, 0.5 is 72832, and 0.618 is 70786. Yesterday’s low 76261 is still above 74877.
The near-term box has already changed its floor. The Aug 28 pullback low 76888 and the Aug 30 low 77000 were both broken by the drop to 76261 at 08:00 on Sep 2. From the Aug 30 high 79401.4 down to 76261, Fib 0.382 is at 77461. The 4H deadline price 77466.8 is sitting on this line. The near-term swings are 79401.4, 77000, 79256, and 76261. The sample high 81499.9 is still above.
【How to use it】
The old box’s 76888 is already gone. Near-term first watch 77461 to 76261. If 76261 is lost, below it is the Aug 23 low 75559.5, and only then is the next level the larger-degree Fib 0.382 at 74877. To invalidate this pullback segment, you’d need to first reclaim 79256, then reclaim 79401.4, and finally reclaim 81499.9.
4H false breakout long. The old window’s 64318 is now only for reference, not an anchor for placing orders right in front of you.
Do you trust that it’s still consolidating below 81500 and that 76261 can hold, or do you trust that the Aug 28 candle already finished and the box is ready to open downward? Recheck 76261 and report the invalidation level.
$BTC #波浪理论 #比特币 #BTC
Captain Dragonfly｜A finance blogger who likes analyzing data and candlesticks.
Not investment advice. Wave counting is only for structural observation. The current 4H candle has not finished yet.
