Nonfarm shocks but fails to dent BTC $77,000: Why do rate-hike expectations actually not fall but rise?
Weak employment data didn’t smash BTC lower—$77,000 above stays rock solid, and the market is betting on rate hikes but not panicking.
The latest U.S. employment report came in worse than expected. In theory, weaker economic data should weigh on the dollar and support risk assets—but this time, something went wrong. Traders still refuse to let go of the rate-hike bet. BTC has been consolidating around $77,550.01 (down only 0.04% over the past 24 hours), basically unaffected. In plain terms: bad data came out, yet the coin price somehow held.
The transmission path is straightforward: weaker jobs → should be bearish for the USD and bullish for risk assets → but rate-hike expectations didn’t drop → the theoretical bearish effect gets priced in → BTC doesn’t sell off and instead chops sideways. That’s the source of its resilience.
Market impact
- Short term: Rate-hike expectations are still “hanging overhead,” like a blade above. But BTC has already dulled this negative factor—$77,000 has been tested several times without breaking. That suggests limited selling pressure on the spot side. ETH is weaker: $2,401.39 is down 1.27%, tracking the move but with less upside/downside elasticity.
- Medium term: If subsequent data continues to deteriorate, the rate-hike narrative will eventually lose its footing. The moment the market flips, that will be the starting point of the move. Right now, the market is basically waiting for a catalyst.
My take
I’m fairly bullish. The logic is simple: the bearish setup (weak data + rate-hike expectations) is right there in the open, yet BTC doesn’t fall. That alone is a strong signal. $77,000 is the key near-term support. As long as it’s not convincingly broken, look for BTC to challenge the $80,000 psychological level. The risk is that if the probability of rate hikes gets repriced upward again, the first wave of selling pressure will hit BTC first. If $77,000 breaks, waiting for stabilization is safer.
One-sentence translation: When bad news is out and it still doesn’t drop, it’s often a sign that good things are coming.
🎯 Impact outlook
- Coin: BTC / ETH
- Bias: Bullish📈 Predicting a rise
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
#Macroeconomy
⚠️ Not investment advice
Weak employment data didn’t smash BTC lower—$77,000 above stays rock solid, and the market is betting on rate hikes but not panicking.
The latest U.S. employment report came in worse than expected. In theory, weaker economic data should weigh on the dollar and support risk assets—but this time, something went wrong. Traders still refuse to let go of the rate-hike bet. BTC has been consolidating around $77,550.01 (down only 0.04% over the past 24 hours), basically unaffected. In plain terms: bad data came out, yet the coin price somehow held.
The transmission path is straightforward: weaker jobs → should be bearish for the USD and bullish for risk assets → but rate-hike expectations didn’t drop → the theoretical bearish effect gets priced in → BTC doesn’t sell off and instead chops sideways. That’s the source of its resilience.
Market impact
- Short term: Rate-hike expectations are still “hanging overhead,” like a blade above. But BTC has already dulled this negative factor—$77,000 has been tested several times without breaking. That suggests limited selling pressure on the spot side. ETH is weaker: $2,401.39 is down 1.27%, tracking the move but with less upside/downside elasticity.
- Medium term: If subsequent data continues to deteriorate, the rate-hike narrative will eventually lose its footing. The moment the market flips, that will be the starting point of the move. Right now, the market is basically waiting for a catalyst.
My take
I’m fairly bullish. The logic is simple: the bearish setup (weak data + rate-hike expectations) is right there in the open, yet BTC doesn’t fall. That alone is a strong signal. $77,000 is the key near-term support. As long as it’s not convincingly broken, look for BTC to challenge the $80,000 psychological level. The risk is that if the probability of rate hikes gets repriced upward again, the first wave of selling pressure will hit BTC first. If $77,000 breaks, waiting for stabilization is safer.
One-sentence translation: When bad news is out and it still doesn’t drop, it’s often a sign that good things are coming.
🎯 Impact outlook
- Coin: BTC / ETH
- Bias: Bullish📈 Predicting a rise
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
#Macroeconomy
⚠️ Not investment advice
