After several months of decline and exhausting sideways trading, Bitcoin rose by more than 20% in August, Ethereum by over 30%, and Solana by more than 40%. Together with BTC and leading altcoins, the entire crypto market is rising again, and for many investors it looks like the last chance to get in before a new big rally. But has the crypto winter really ended—or is the market just luring buyers ahead of another crash?
What points to a real reversal
Over two weeks, crypto market capitalization increased by about $500 billion to $2.65 trillion. The first push came from news out of the U.S. After the CLARITY Act was delayed, the SEC proposed simplified rules for issuing certain tokens. This showed that regulatory changes had not stopped along with the bill. The next day, the Treasury announced increased buybacks of long-term bonds, which further supported risk assets.
These news pushed bitcoin up at a moment when a lot of bearish bets had accumulated in the market. According to CoinGlass, within just one hour exchanges forcibly closed BTC short positions worth more than $1 billion, and across the entire crypto sector the value of liquidated bearish bets reached $2.7 billion. These forced purchases sharply accelerated the rally.
However, the strongest argument for the bulls is not the August jump itself, but the structure of demand after it. When the first wave of liquidations passed, prices did not return to previous levels. From August 17 to September 1, bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $3 billion over nine consecutive trading sessions. An outflow of $201.9 million on August 28 interrupted that streak, but on August 31 funds received another $216.7 million. Overall, over the last 30 days, net inflows reached $3.52 billion.
The money did not go only into bitcoin. Over the last 30 days, Ethereum funds attracted $1.85 billion, and Solana about $194 million. Both assets outpaced BTC in growth rates, which means demand began to spread beyond the largest cryptocurrency.
The change in sentiment was not limited to the first day of the rally. According to Alternative.me, on August 19 the Fear and Greed Index stood at 46 points and was still in the fear zone. By August 20 it had risen to 62, and by August 21 to 72 points. By the end of the month, the indicator no longer fell below 62, and September arrived at 69 points. So after the initial short squeeze, risk appetite did not disappear: the market stayed in the greed zone for thirteen consecutive days.
Another argument in favor of a reversal is that accumulation began long before the rally itself. Despite bitcoin remaining near $63,000–65,000 until August 19, and the number of bearish bets increasing in the futures market, wallet holders of all sizes had already started accumulating BTC from August 5. CryptoQuant also recorded more coins flowing out of exchanges and increased holdings among large owners. In other words, as early as the beginning of the month, some participants were already viewing prices near $60,000 as a possible bottom and were gradually buying bitcoin, even though that demand was not yet enough for a noticeable rise. News from the U.S. merely provided the signal after which hidden accumulation turned into an open move upward.
that shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz are open, while Tehran is setting its own conditions. According to Reuters, vessel traffic is still only 5–15% of pre-war levels. Additional uncertainty is being created by a new U.S. sanctions campaign covering oil, shipping, gold, and digital assets.
A new escalation could again push oil prices up and intensify inflation. This is especially dangerous now, when PCE stands at 3.7% and the market, after Kevin Warsh’s latest speech, estimates the probability of a September rate hike at about 57%. During periods of gradual dollar weakness, BTC can rise together with gold. But a sharp oil shock could lift yields and trigger a flight from risk assets.
The Finance Ministry’s decision to buy back bonds should not be overestimated either. It is support for debt-market liquidity, not QE and not the creation of new money. If investors interpreted it as the start of large-scale policy easing, part of the August rally may have been based on overly optimistic expectations.
Finally, bitcoin still needs to pass through the $81,000–86,000 zone. According to Glassnode, significant supply from long-term holders is concentrated there. If ETF inflows weaken right at this barrier, BTC may return to $70,000. A drop below that will open the way to $62,000–65,000 and effectively erase the August surge.
Three scenarios for the crypto market in autumn
After almost 25% growth in August, bitcoin entered September near $78,500. Analysts assess the next move differently, but they consider the same levels key. The $83,000–86,000 zone must confirm the reversal, while losing $70,000 would cast it into doubt.
New bull run. The estimate from CryptoQuant is closest to this scenario. The company believes bitcoin has already entered the early phase of a bull market, but the final confirmation will be a hold above $83,000.
Glassnode names a similar threshold at $83,300 and adds another condition — continued ETF inflows. A break through the entire $83,000–86,000 zone will open the way to $100,000. Bernstein analysts expect $125,000 by the end of 2026 and $150,000 by mid-2027.
Consolidation without a new collapse. That scenario still looks like the baseline. According to Glassnode calculations, by the end of September the options market is pricing in a range of $69,000–89,700. In a comment for Minfin, analysts at Traders Union also forecast sideways movement, but in a narrower range — between $69,500 and $83,000 by the end of autumn or the beginning of winter. After the August rally, BTC may first correct to $73,000, and a break of that support will open the way to $69,500. Traders Union explains that the transition from accumulation to sustained growth often takes about a year, while the current phase has lasted only six months. Therefore, the market may need a few more months of consolidation before a stronger move.
The August rally will turn out to be a trap. The risk of this scenario increased already at the beginning of September. Brent rose above $91, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed to 4.79%, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September reached about 65%. If BTC loses nearby support around $77,000, the next target will be $70,000, and then the $62,000–65,000 zone. Additional pressure comes from September being historically weak for bitcoin. Under such a development, Ethereum and Solana are likely to lose more than BTC.
In the end, autumn begins for the crypto market not with a ready-made bull run, but with a test of August optimism. Institutional demand and ETF inflows give bitcoin a chance to continue rising, but high concentration of buying, resistance near $80,000–83,000, and the risk of a Fed rate hike leave no room for weak data. The coming weeks will show whether August was the start of a new cycle or only the strongest rebound inside the old one.
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