$LITE 24 hours has fallen by nearly 4%, with the price at 861.74. The funding rate is slightly positive at 0.00005643, and open interest is 11,092.
The current market structure is not suitable for going long. Although the funding rate is low, it remains positive, which indicates that longs are still holding on. Price is down while funding is positive, a classic structure of longs trapped and adding to positions, with costs accumulating. Trading volume is 33.95 million, which is not very active, so there is a lack of rebound momentum.
The strongest counterpoint is that if price suddenly surges on volume and breaks above 880, it could trigger short covering. But if it keeps drifting lower, the stop-loss orders from these longs will concentrate below, making a cascade of liquidations more likely.
The invalidation condition is price reclaiming 880 with increased volume. Before that, any rebound is just an opportunity for shorts.
Action: At the current price of 861, do not chase the short. Wait for a rebound into the 868-872 range to enter a short position, with 4x leverage. Set the stop loss at 881, and take profit at 840. Use 20% position size for the initial test trade.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #LITE
Where do you think this judgment is most likely wrong?
The current market structure is not suitable for going long. Although the funding rate is low, it remains positive, which indicates that longs are still holding on. Price is down while funding is positive, a classic structure of longs trapped and adding to positions, with costs accumulating. Trading volume is 33.95 million, which is not very active, so there is a lack of rebound momentum.
The strongest counterpoint is that if price suddenly surges on volume and breaks above 880, it could trigger short covering. But if it keeps drifting lower, the stop-loss orders from these longs will concentrate below, making a cascade of liquidations more likely.
The invalidation condition is price reclaiming 880 with increased volume. Before that, any rebound is just an opportunity for shorts.
Action: At the current price of 861, do not chase the short. Wait for a rebound into the 868-872 range to enter a short position, with 4x leverage. Set the stop loss at 881, and take profit at 840. Use 20% position size for the initial test trade.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #LITE
Where do you think this judgment is most likely wrong?