$CRDO 24 hours, it dropped 16.256%. Now the price is 185.61. The funding rate is still 0.00017547 and positive—longs are still paying shorts. Open interest is 7446.46; this position isn’t small.
The strongest counter-evidence is that Trump suddenly pivoted and put out a pro-market policy, boosting the market. But based on the current data, long positions are heavy. Once there’s a negative headline, stop-loss orders can trigger in a cascade. Second-order effect: when longs are forced to liquidate, they provide liquidity to shorts, accelerating the downside. I think $CRDO still has room to fall in the short term because longs are holding their positions; what the market is ignoring is that the political-risk premium hasn’t fully been priced in yet.
My plan is to short, using 5x leverage. Set the stop-loss at 192 (about 3.5% above the current price) and take profit at 175 (about 5.7% below the current price). Allocate 15% of total capital. If the price rebounds and breaks above 192, I’ll cut my loss and exit. If it falls below 175, I’ll move the stop-loss to protect profits. The invalidation conditions are when the funding rate turns negative or Trump issues a clear positive policy.
Aggressive strategy: short at the current price; raise leverage to 8x, stop-loss at 190, take profit at 170. Conservative strategy: wait for the price to rebound to around 188, then try a short with 3x leverage; stop-loss at 192, take profit at 180. Avoidance strategy: if open interest spikes sharply or the funding rate turns negative, stay on the sidelines and don’t touch it.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CRDO
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
The strongest counter-evidence is that Trump suddenly pivoted and put out a pro-market policy, boosting the market. But based on the current data, long positions are heavy. Once there’s a negative headline, stop-loss orders can trigger in a cascade. Second-order effect: when longs are forced to liquidate, they provide liquidity to shorts, accelerating the downside. I think $CRDO still has room to fall in the short term because longs are holding their positions; what the market is ignoring is that the political-risk premium hasn’t fully been priced in yet.
My plan is to short, using 5x leverage. Set the stop-loss at 192 (about 3.5% above the current price) and take profit at 175 (about 5.7% below the current price). Allocate 15% of total capital. If the price rebounds and breaks above 192, I’ll cut my loss and exit. If it falls below 175, I’ll move the stop-loss to protect profits. The invalidation conditions are when the funding rate turns negative or Trump issues a clear positive policy.
Aggressive strategy: short at the current price; raise leverage to 8x, stop-loss at 190, take profit at 170. Conservative strategy: wait for the price to rebound to around 188, then try a short with 3x leverage; stop-loss at 192, take profit at 180. Avoidance strategy: if open interest spikes sharply or the funding rate turns negative, stay on the sidelines and don’t touch it.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CRDO
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?