$MRNA 24 hours it rose 9.001%, with the price stalling at 150.64—this move isn’t small in on-chain US stock perp markets. The funding rate is negative, -0.00086664; shorts pay longs, which indicates shorts are crowded and therefore likely to get squeezed. OI stands at 10,106.79 contracts. With price rising in tandem with negative funding, this is a typical short-squeeze structure.
Old dog’s take: this rally is mainly driven by forced liquidation of the shorts. With funding negative to this level, the shorts’ holding cost increases every day; if the price doesn’t fall, they have to run. However, the counterpoint is that if longs take profits around 150, or if new shorts think the price is too high to enter, the uptrend may stall. The second-order effect is that short liquidations release buy pressure, but if the market can’t absorb it, the price is prone to spike up and then pull back.
The invalidation conditions are straightforward: if the funding rate turns positive, it means short pressure is easing and the squeeze logic collapses; or if price breaks below the 150 integer level, the short-term trend is damaged. In terms of action, I choose to wait—wait for funding to turn positive, or for price to break below 150, then consider moving the position.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #MRNA #MRNAUSDT $MRNA
Old dog’s take: this rally is mainly driven by forced liquidation of the shorts. With funding negative to this level, the shorts’ holding cost increases every day; if the price doesn’t fall, they have to run. However, the counterpoint is that if longs take profits around 150, or if new shorts think the price is too high to enter, the uptrend may stall. The second-order effect is that short liquidations release buy pressure, but if the market can’t absorb it, the price is prone to spike up and then pull back.
The invalidation conditions are straightforward: if the funding rate turns positive, it means short pressure is easing and the squeeze logic collapses; or if price breaks below the 150 integer level, the short-term trend is damaged. In terms of action, I choose to wait—wait for funding to turn positive, or for price to break below 150, then consider moving the position.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #MRNA #MRNAUSDT $MRNA