According to the latest data released Tuesday by the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average retail price of diesel fuel across the United States has risen to $5.688 per gallon, the highest level since April. At the same time, Europe’s sovereign debt markets have been extremely volatile: the UK’s 10-year government bond yield jumped by 7 basis points during the day to 5.29%, reaching its highest level since August 2007. Italy’s 2-year government bond yield also rose by 7 basis points to 3.22%, hitting its highest level since early 2024. U.S. President Trump, in a closed-door meeting, urged domestic refineries to increase production to ease supply pressures.
From a macro-technical perspective, geopolitical conflicts have damaged Russia’s refining facilities and reduced exports, and the price spikes on the energy front are once again pushing global inflation expectations higher. However, in a report dated August 28, Goldman Sachs noted that diesel remains the core of this round of energy rebound. Commodity price surges driven by tightening on the supply side often peak quickly after policy intervention and production capacity expansion, making it difficult for them to evolve into a prolonged stagflation spiral.
In traditional financial markets, government bond yields across multiple countries in Europe and the United States have moved in sync to hit multi-year technical resistance levels. In the short term, this has suppressed valuation in fixed-income markets, but it also suggests that yields in the long end may be forming a temporary double top. With further upside room for yields becoming limited, incremental pressure from tightening liquidity is gradually easing. Meanwhile, panic selling in traditional markets is, in turn, helping to establish a solid macro bottom for risk assets.
As for the cryptocurrency market, the concentrated release of both high inflation and high yields is a typical signal of the market confirming a bottom on the right side. As energy inflation expectations are fully digested by the market, assets such as $BTC are expected to present rebound opportunities under the outlook for a liquidity bottom followed by a recovery. Demand for hedging against inflation in hard assets will provide strong support for subsequent breakthroughs above key resistance levels.📈
#通胀 #美债 #Energy Crisis
From a macro-technical perspective, geopolitical conflicts have damaged Russia’s refining facilities and reduced exports, and the price spikes on the energy front are once again pushing global inflation expectations higher. However, in a report dated August 28, Goldman Sachs noted that diesel remains the core of this round of energy rebound. Commodity price surges driven by tightening on the supply side often peak quickly after policy intervention and production capacity expansion, making it difficult for them to evolve into a prolonged stagflation spiral.
In traditional financial markets, government bond yields across multiple countries in Europe and the United States have moved in sync to hit multi-year technical resistance levels. In the short term, this has suppressed valuation in fixed-income markets, but it also suggests that yields in the long end may be forming a temporary double top. With further upside room for yields becoming limited, incremental pressure from tightening liquidity is gradually easing. Meanwhile, panic selling in traditional markets is, in turn, helping to establish a solid macro bottom for risk assets.
As for the cryptocurrency market, the concentrated release of both high inflation and high yields is a typical signal of the market confirming a bottom on the right side. As energy inflation expectations are fully digested by the market, assets such as $BTC are expected to present rebound opportunities under the outlook for a liquidity bottom followed by a recovery. Demand for hedging against inflation in hard assets will provide strong support for subsequent breakthroughs above key resistance levels.📈
#通胀 #美债 #Energy Crisis