On-Chain Dashboard
The 30th Cycle Indicator is Live!
When STH-MVRV drops below 1.0 twice and then reclaims the cost line, it usually indicates that the late-stage short-term floating supply and leverage have completed two rounds of cleansing.
#链上指标分析
BTC: SHORT TERM HOLDER MVRV
BTC: MVRV for Short-Term Holders
Latest data:
In the bull market recovery phase, a double-search (double test) state: completed · reclaimed 1.0
Current STH-MVRV is 1.1016,
up from the 1.0 breakeven line by +10.16%,
7-day change: -0.0342.
The first probe low of this round was 0.6867 (2026-02-05), rebounded to 1.0421; the second probe low was 0.8111 (2026-06-05).
It returned to the cost line on 2026-08-19, and the validation is currently ongoing.
7-day change: -0.0342
Distance from 1.0: +10.16%
This round’s first probe / second probe
0.687 / 0.811
Scenario simulation
2026-09-01 → 2027-08-31
STH-MVRV equals the BTC spot price divided by the realized price of the <155-day unspent supply>.
1.0 is the overall breakeven line for short-term holders;
below 1.0 means average floating loss,
above 1.0 means cost repair.
The system daily identifies the first probe, rebound, and second probe in the 2019 and 2023 recovery periods, and explicitly excludes the external black swan in March 2020.
The dashed line on the right only reflects near-term momentum decay and regression toward the four-year median; it continuously projects a future 365-day research scenario, not a price prediction.
2019 · DOUBLE TEST
0.627 / 0.7512018-11-26 → 2019-11-24 · REBOUND 1.771 · COMPLETE
2023 · DOUBLE TEST
0.958 / 0.9042023-06-14 → 2023-09-11 · REBOUND 1.143 · COMPLETE
This round · DOUBLE TEST
0.687 / 0.8112026-02-05 → 2026-06-05 · REBOUND 1.042 · COMPLETE
A double test and reclaiming 1.0 are evidence of cost basis repair, but they cannot, by themselves, confirm the beginning of a primary uptrend.
More curated on-chain cycle indicators
Portal
https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Access Code:
WELINKMAX
(Get 1 month of free early access to MAX)
Help you understand cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
The 30th Cycle Indicator is Live!
When STH-MVRV drops below 1.0 twice and then reclaims the cost line, it usually indicates that the late-stage short-term floating supply and leverage have completed two rounds of cleansing.
#链上指标分析
BTC: SHORT TERM HOLDER MVRV
BTC: MVRV for Short-Term Holders
Latest data:
In the bull market recovery phase, a double-search (double test) state: completed · reclaimed 1.0
Current STH-MVRV is 1.1016,
up from the 1.0 breakeven line by +10.16%,
7-day change: -0.0342.
The first probe low of this round was 0.6867 (2026-02-05), rebounded to 1.0421; the second probe low was 0.8111 (2026-06-05).
It returned to the cost line on 2026-08-19, and the validation is currently ongoing.
7-day change: -0.0342
Distance from 1.0: +10.16%
This round’s first probe / second probe
0.687 / 0.811
Scenario simulation
2026-09-01 → 2027-08-31
STH-MVRV equals the BTC spot price divided by the realized price of the <155-day unspent supply>.
1.0 is the overall breakeven line for short-term holders;
below 1.0 means average floating loss,
above 1.0 means cost repair.
The system daily identifies the first probe, rebound, and second probe in the 2019 and 2023 recovery periods, and explicitly excludes the external black swan in March 2020.
The dashed line on the right only reflects near-term momentum decay and regression toward the four-year median; it continuously projects a future 365-day research scenario, not a price prediction.
2019 · DOUBLE TEST
0.627 / 0.7512018-11-26 → 2019-11-24 · REBOUND 1.771 · COMPLETE
2023 · DOUBLE TEST
0.958 / 0.9042023-06-14 → 2023-09-11 · REBOUND 1.143 · COMPLETE
This round · DOUBLE TEST
0.687 / 0.8112026-02-05 → 2026-06-05 · REBOUND 1.042 · COMPLETE
A double test and reclaiming 1.0 are evidence of cost basis repair, but they cannot, by themselves, confirm the beginning of a primary uptrend.
More curated on-chain cycle indicators
Portal
https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Access Code:
WELINKMAX
(Get 1 month of free early access to MAX)
Help you understand cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
