$AXTI fell by 8.034% over the past 24 hours, with a quote of 55.75. But the funding rate is positive: 0.00016429. Longs are paying shorts.
This is a typical fragile structure in the Trump trade. Price is falling, meaning selling pressure or bearish sentiment is in control, but a positive funding rate means the long positions in the contract haven’t surrendered and exited—they’re paying to hold their ground. This kind of divergence usually doesn’t last long. The market treats on-chain US stock contracts like AXTI as proxy exposure to U.S. policy risk; any tough remarks from Trump would directly pressure the price. But now the price is down, and longs still aren’t leaving. That could mean they genuinely have hopes for a future policy shift, or it could mean their positions are underwater and they’re passively adding to average down.
The strongest counter-evidence is this: after Trump’s actual policies are implemented, if they unexpectedly turn favorable for manufacturing or a particular tech sector, a proxy like AXTI could be repriced—then the capital used to hold shorts would have been betting correctly.
Next is the open interest (145695.86). If the price continues to grind lower, the liquidation levels for these paid-to-hold longs will keep moving down. Once a faster selloff accelerates and hits a chain of liquidations, the price could see a final drop. With this structure, I lean bearish.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #AXTI
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
This is a typical fragile structure in the Trump trade. Price is falling, meaning selling pressure or bearish sentiment is in control, but a positive funding rate means the long positions in the contract haven’t surrendered and exited—they’re paying to hold their ground. This kind of divergence usually doesn’t last long. The market treats on-chain US stock contracts like AXTI as proxy exposure to U.S. policy risk; any tough remarks from Trump would directly pressure the price. But now the price is down, and longs still aren’t leaving. That could mean they genuinely have hopes for a future policy shift, or it could mean their positions are underwater and they’re passively adding to average down.
The strongest counter-evidence is this: after Trump’s actual policies are implemented, if they unexpectedly turn favorable for manufacturing or a particular tech sector, a proxy like AXTI could be repriced—then the capital used to hold shorts would have been betting correctly.
Next is the open interest (145695.86). If the price continues to grind lower, the liquidation levels for these paid-to-hold longs will keep moving down. Once a faster selloff accelerates and hits a chain of liquidations, the price could see a final drop. With this structure, I lean bearish.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #AXTI
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?