#美联储加息概率升至68% US stock market outlook analysis: the US-Iran conflict ignites oil prices, stocks and bonds take a double hit, and gold plunges
Overall market: The first day of September opened badly. All three major US stock indexes fell, with the Nasdaq down 1%. Geopolitics grabbed the microphone, and global markets switched into risk-off mode.
Macroeconomics and asset performance:
Oil: After the US and Iran took action, WTI crude surged 5.2% to above $90. Energy stocks became the only safe haven.
Bond market: Global sovereign bonds were dumped. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury jumped to 4.8%, and the probability of further rate hikes was pushed directly to 68%.
Gold: Real yields rose, and gold fell below $4,350, dropping nearly 2%.
Stock market: When rates rise, tech stocks get hit first. Software and semiconductor sectors led the declines, and AI-related themes underperformed the broader market.
Key logic: Geopolitical conflict → oil price spike → inflation expectations pick up → bond yields surge → pressure on growth stock valuations. Oil rose and supported energy stocks, but it smashed almost every other sector.
Summary: This geopolitical issue can’t be predicted—only addressed. Now oil is rising too fast, and if the situation cools down later, the pullback could be just as quick #美军打击两艘伊朗油轮 #伊朗革命卫队称打击约旦美军陆战队营地 #科威特美军基地发生爆炸 #科威特防空系统回应伊朗无人机袭击
Overall market: The first day of September opened badly. All three major US stock indexes fell, with the Nasdaq down 1%. Geopolitics grabbed the microphone, and global markets switched into risk-off mode.
Macroeconomics and asset performance:
Oil: After the US and Iran took action, WTI crude surged 5.2% to above $90. Energy stocks became the only safe haven.
Bond market: Global sovereign bonds were dumped. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury jumped to 4.8%, and the probability of further rate hikes was pushed directly to 68%.
Gold: Real yields rose, and gold fell below $4,350, dropping nearly 2%.
Stock market: When rates rise, tech stocks get hit first. Software and semiconductor sectors led the declines, and AI-related themes underperformed the broader market.
Key logic: Geopolitical conflict → oil price spike → inflation expectations pick up → bond yields surge → pressure on growth stock valuations. Oil rose and supported energy stocks, but it smashed almost every other sector.
Summary: This geopolitical issue can’t be predicted—only addressed. Now oil is rising too fast, and if the situation cools down later, the pullback could be just as quick #美军打击两艘伊朗油轮 #伊朗革命卫队称打击约旦美军陆战队营地 #科威特美军基地发生爆炸 #科威特防空系统回应伊朗无人机袭击
