CRCL has retraced 5.787% over the past 24 hours; the current price is 89.06. The funding rate is still positive at 0.00023. The price is falling, but funding remains positive—this is a typical long-position trap/add-on structure.
Uncertainty around the Trump trade is heating up again, and this kind of macro noise directly impacts the risk pricing of TradFi perps. As an on-chain U.S. stock contract, CRCL is extremely sensitive to this kind of headline. When price drops, long positions continue to pay funding, which effectively increases their holding cost every day. A similar structure appeared last time in April: while the price kept falling, longs held on to keep the funding rate positive, until it finally blew out and then rallied. Now open interest is 865,000 lots—it's not light. Longs are burning through capital via funding, but the price hasn’t stabilized; they’re effectively looking for a liquidation wall to break.
My view: short-term bears have the advantage. If longs keep buying while paying a positive funding rate, the cost line is in the 89–92 area. If price dips further, stop-loss orders may be triggered in a chain.
In terms of execution, I’ll look for a level to go short. Direction: short; Leverage: 10x; Stop loss: above 92.0 (if it holds above and establishes, that invalidates my thesis); Take profit: around 85.0 near the prior low; Position size: half position as a trial.
If Trump suddenly posts a bullish crypto tweet and price V-reverses, my bearish thesis would be invalid and I’ll need to run.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CRCL
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
Uncertainty around the Trump trade is heating up again, and this kind of macro noise directly impacts the risk pricing of TradFi perps. As an on-chain U.S. stock contract, CRCL is extremely sensitive to this kind of headline. When price drops, long positions continue to pay funding, which effectively increases their holding cost every day. A similar structure appeared last time in April: while the price kept falling, longs held on to keep the funding rate positive, until it finally blew out and then rallied. Now open interest is 865,000 lots—it's not light. Longs are burning through capital via funding, but the price hasn’t stabilized; they’re effectively looking for a liquidation wall to break.
My view: short-term bears have the advantage. If longs keep buying while paying a positive funding rate, the cost line is in the 89–92 area. If price dips further, stop-loss orders may be triggered in a chain.
In terms of execution, I’ll look for a level to go short. Direction: short; Leverage: 10x; Stop loss: above 92.0 (if it holds above and establishes, that invalidates my thesis); Take profit: around 85.0 near the prior low; Position size: half position as a trial.
If Trump suddenly posts a bullish crypto tweet and price V-reverses, my bearish thesis would be invalid and I’ll need to run.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CRCL
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?