$ARM Over the past 24 hours, it has fallen nearly 5%, with a quoted price of 233.17. But the funding rate is still positive at 0.00002737, meaning longs are paying shorts.
This is a combination of a price drop with a positive funding rate—a typical structure of longs getting trapped and averaging down. From a Trump-trade perspective, the market may be pricing in in advance the potential policy risks to technology stocks and global supply chains if he takes office, especially the semiconductor sector. The open interest at 59963 has not fallen significantly, suggesting strong disagreement between longs and shorts: longs haven’t given up, but the funding rate continues to accumulate, adding to their costs.
The trigger conditions I’m watching are very clear: if the price breaks below the 233 level and open interest does not decline, I will short. That would mean the stubborn longs begin to buckle, potentially triggering a round of stop-loss selling. Conversely, if the price holds around here and rebounds, I would choose to stay on the sidelines and not participate in this long/short stalemate.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #ARM
Where do you think this outlook is most likely to be wrong?
This is a combination of a price drop with a positive funding rate—a typical structure of longs getting trapped and averaging down. From a Trump-trade perspective, the market may be pricing in in advance the potential policy risks to technology stocks and global supply chains if he takes office, especially the semiconductor sector. The open interest at 59963 has not fallen significantly, suggesting strong disagreement between longs and shorts: longs haven’t given up, but the funding rate continues to accumulate, adding to their costs.
The trigger conditions I’m watching are very clear: if the price breaks below the 233 level and open interest does not decline, I will short. That would mean the stubborn longs begin to buckle, potentially triggering a round of stop-loss selling. Conversely, if the price holds around here and rebounds, I would choose to stay on the sidelines and not participate in this long/short stalemate.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #ARM
Where do you think this outlook is most likely to be wrong?