GM Young Master 🌞
After waking up from a nap, mainstream coins all got wiped out: $BTC -1.38%, $ETH -2.21%, $SOL -3.29%. SOL is leading the decline; the biggest pullback pressure is on the high-beta assets. Given that 10Y U.S. Treasury yields are still sitting at a high 4.796%, it’s really not surprising.
Last night, U.S. stocks also fell: S&P -0.71%, Nasdaq -1.03%, with tech stocks taking the lead. Rates drag valuations; risk appetite shrinks—it's hard for crypto to stay unaffected.
The fear index is still hovering in the “greed” zone around 63, but at times like this, greed is often the most expensive contrarian indicator. History has repeatedly proven that when the fear index is above 60 and people still rush in, odds are high—about 6 to 7 times out of 10—you end up getting trapped.
But what’s truly interesting is always on-chain.
Over at ETH, there’s a big fish bleeding: on Hyperliquid, someone is long ETH with 25x leverage, with a position size of $98.0 million. They’re only $6.3k away from liquidation; they burn $4.3 million per week.
Another BIT-related entity added to the ETH longs, bringing them to 33,000 ETH (about $79.3 million). Currently they’re down $2.48 million, ranking as the fifth-largest position. Sharks eating sharks—this kind of signal is more real than any technical indicator. I don’t know whether they’ll survive in the end, but I know that every time you see position data like this, the direction retail investors tend to take is usually wrong.
Another one worth looking at twice is $arb. After Robinhood Chain went live for two months, fee revenue is $13.05 million, annualized at $110 million. In traditional internet products, that kind of number is top-tier growth.
$1.3 million flowed into the Arbitrum ecosystem, and over the past two weeks, ARB has risen 46.7%. But don’t get too excited yet: on September 23, 139.2 million ARB will be unlocked, and the sell pressure then will require real money to absorb. On the same day, TD Cowen cut its BTC year-end target from $141,000 down to $97,500. The strategist backed off first—so why would you think you can be more accurate than institutions?
DeFi TVL is also falling across the board: $Lido -2.2%, $Aave -2.5%, Binance Staked ETH -2.5%. Even mainstream protocols are bleeding, which suggests fewer people are betting on the future while funds are locked on-chain.
It’s not that nobody believes in Web3—it's that everyone is more willing to hold stablecoins and wait for signals.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up slightly by 0.08%; crude oil is up 0.75%; and gold is down 0.93%:
The classic stagflation combo—everything is going up, but your wallet isn’t 📉
#美联储加息概率升至68%
After waking up from a nap, mainstream coins all got wiped out: $BTC -1.38%, $ETH -2.21%, $SOL -3.29%. SOL is leading the decline; the biggest pullback pressure is on the high-beta assets. Given that 10Y U.S. Treasury yields are still sitting at a high 4.796%, it’s really not surprising.
Last night, U.S. stocks also fell: S&P -0.71%, Nasdaq -1.03%, with tech stocks taking the lead. Rates drag valuations; risk appetite shrinks—it's hard for crypto to stay unaffected.
The fear index is still hovering in the “greed” zone around 63, but at times like this, greed is often the most expensive contrarian indicator. History has repeatedly proven that when the fear index is above 60 and people still rush in, odds are high—about 6 to 7 times out of 10—you end up getting trapped.
But what’s truly interesting is always on-chain.
Over at ETH, there’s a big fish bleeding: on Hyperliquid, someone is long ETH with 25x leverage, with a position size of $98.0 million. They’re only $6.3k away from liquidation; they burn $4.3 million per week.
Another BIT-related entity added to the ETH longs, bringing them to 33,000 ETH (about $79.3 million). Currently they’re down $2.48 million, ranking as the fifth-largest position. Sharks eating sharks—this kind of signal is more real than any technical indicator. I don’t know whether they’ll survive in the end, but I know that every time you see position data like this, the direction retail investors tend to take is usually wrong.
Another one worth looking at twice is $arb. After Robinhood Chain went live for two months, fee revenue is $13.05 million, annualized at $110 million. In traditional internet products, that kind of number is top-tier growth.
$1.3 million flowed into the Arbitrum ecosystem, and over the past two weeks, ARB has risen 46.7%. But don’t get too excited yet: on September 23, 139.2 million ARB will be unlocked, and the sell pressure then will require real money to absorb. On the same day, TD Cowen cut its BTC year-end target from $141,000 down to $97,500. The strategist backed off first—so why would you think you can be more accurate than institutions?
DeFi TVL is also falling across the board: $Lido -2.2%, $Aave -2.5%, Binance Staked ETH -2.5%. Even mainstream protocols are bleeding, which suggests fewer people are betting on the future while funds are locked on-chain.
It’s not that nobody believes in Web3—it's that everyone is more willing to hold stablecoins and wait for signals.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up slightly by 0.08%; crude oil is up 0.75%; and gold is down 0.93%:
The classic stagflation combo—everything is going up, but your wallet isn’t 📉
#美联储加息概率升至68%
