Over 1,$CRCL 24 hours, it dropped 5.787%, but the funding rate is still positive at 0.00023. As the price falls, longs are still paying shorts. This suggests the dip-buying longs haven’t exited—maybe they’re even adding to their positions. Open interest is 860k contracts, not low.
This structure is very classic in futures contracts: when the price drops, the funding fee doesn’t turn negative, meaning the longs are hard-holding. If Trump suddenly tweets tonight about increasing taxes on tech companies or tightening crypto regulation, with $CRCL as an on-chain U.S.-stock proxy, it would be an immediate target. With longs currently paying to maintain their positions, once a policy “black swan” hits, it could trigger a chain-reaction liquidation wave.
I’m doing the opposite. I’ll short with 5x leverage, set the stop-loss above 90.5, and take profit at 85. I’ll use one-tenth of my position size; if it drops near 85, I’ll reassess. The invalidation condition is simple: if Trump explicitly sends a bullish message for crypto and tech stocks, and the price holds above 90.5, then this short thesis is gone—I’ll leave immediately.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CRCL
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?
This structure is very classic in futures contracts: when the price drops, the funding fee doesn’t turn negative, meaning the longs are hard-holding. If Trump suddenly tweets tonight about increasing taxes on tech companies or tightening crypto regulation, with $CRCL as an on-chain U.S.-stock proxy, it would be an immediate target. With longs currently paying to maintain their positions, once a policy “black swan” hits, it could trigger a chain-reaction liquidation wave.
I’m doing the opposite. I’ll short with 5x leverage, set the stop-loss above 90.5, and take profit at 85. I’ll use one-tenth of my position size; if it drops near 85, I’ll reassess. The invalidation condition is simple: if Trump explicitly sends a bullish message for crypto and tech stocks, and the price holds above 90.5, then this short thesis is gone—I’ll leave immediately.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CRCL
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?