DJT daily line drops again by nearly 5%, now at 9.32. Two political shocks: first, the market is skeptical about rumors that Trump Media will merge with TAE; second, tensions in the U.S.-Iran Hormuz Strait have pushed up oil prices and weighed on risk assets, and the Dow followed lower. The funding rate has fallen to zero; open interest is 11,600 contracts, suggesting existing capital is waiting on the sidelines and no new long buyers are willing to step in.
I’m going against the consensus and staying bearish. The biggest counter-evidence is that if the merger rumor suddenly gets regulatory approval or Trump publicly endorses it, there could be a violent rebound. A second-order effect is that long holders may be forced to cut losses, and funds may temporarily flow into defensive sectors.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #DJT
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?
I’m going against the consensus and staying bearish. The biggest counter-evidence is that if the merger rumor suddenly gets regulatory approval or Trump publicly endorses it, there could be a violent rebound. A second-order effect is that long holders may be forced to cut losses, and funds may temporarily flow into defensive sectors.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #DJT
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?