Contract Order Book Daily｜9/1 Evening: Iran threatens to spook risk, fees unchanged
Trump released an AI video claiming that “Iran’s Hark Island has been blown up.” This is a place through which more than half of Iran’s crude oil exports must pass.
Once the news broke, U.S. stocks wiped out $450 billion that day—markets were genuinely scared.
When it feeds through to the futures order book: the $BTC mark price is 781,000, down 0.59% over 24 hours. Yet the funding rate is still positive at 0.0041%, while open interest actually rose 1.1% to $8.456 billion.
Translated: prices are falling, longs haven’t pulled out, leverage hasn’t come down—if anything, it’s increased. This is classic “buy more while it’s dropping.”
$ETH has the same flavor: mark price 2448, down 0.76%. The fee/funding rate at 0.0009% is still in the positive range.
$SOL is the reverse: the rate flipped negative to -0.0078%, down 1.54%. That means shorts are effectively paying to bet on the drop—if there’s a rebound, they can get hurt badly.
The sentiment index at 69 is still in the greed zone, which doesn’t match the sea of green on the screen. This kind of divergence usually isn’t a sentiment turn first—the price usually has to catch up with the sell-off first.
In spot markets too, some people are continuing to sell coins at this level. Keep an eye on whether $BTC can hold this line; if it can’t, the long positions that haven’t exited this wave will become the fuel for the next one.
Live trading disclosure: This account currently holds FOGO long positions. The related views are consistent with the actual holdings.
Compiled with assistance from Claude Fable 5 for contract/order-book data. For information only—please verify independently.
Trump released an AI video claiming that “Iran’s Hark Island has been blown up.” This is a place through which more than half of Iran’s crude oil exports must pass.
Once the news broke, U.S. stocks wiped out $450 billion that day—markets were genuinely scared.
When it feeds through to the futures order book: the $BTC mark price is 781,000, down 0.59% over 24 hours. Yet the funding rate is still positive at 0.0041%, while open interest actually rose 1.1% to $8.456 billion.
Translated: prices are falling, longs haven’t pulled out, leverage hasn’t come down—if anything, it’s increased. This is classic “buy more while it’s dropping.”
$ETH has the same flavor: mark price 2448, down 0.76%. The fee/funding rate at 0.0009% is still in the positive range.
$SOL is the reverse: the rate flipped negative to -0.0078%, down 1.54%. That means shorts are effectively paying to bet on the drop—if there’s a rebound, they can get hurt badly.
The sentiment index at 69 is still in the greed zone, which doesn’t match the sea of green on the screen. This kind of divergence usually isn’t a sentiment turn first—the price usually has to catch up with the sell-off first.
In spot markets too, some people are continuing to sell coins at this level. Keep an eye on whether $BTC can hold this line; if it can’t, the long positions that haven’t exited this wave will become the fuel for the next one.
Live trading disclosure: This account currently holds FOGO long positions. The related views are consistent with the actual holdings.
Compiled with assistance from Claude Fable 5 for contract/order-book data. For information only—please verify independently.
