Trump pressures the Fed to cut rates, while Warsh is mulling a hike: the probability of a rate increase has surged to 66%
After the Fed leadership change, the market is actually betting on a rate hike, putting downward pressure on BTC at $78,348 through liquidity tightening.
According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of an FOMC rate hike has already climbed above 66%. Meanwhile, Trump again publicly pressured the Fed from the Oval Office, demanding that it lower borrowing costs. In plain terms: the president wants cheaper money, while the incoming Fed chair, Warsh, is seriously considering raising rates. The two sides are pulling in opposite directions, and the market has cast its votes with real money—betting on a hike, not a cut.
One-sentence translation: The market doesn’t believe Trump can call the shots; money is already being priced for a “more expensive dollar.”
Impact on the market
- Short term: Rate-hike expectations = tighter dollar liquidity, and risk assets take the hit first. BTC is slipping sideways around $78,348, down 0.12%; ETH $2,454.86 is down 0.39%; SOL is down more than 1%—altcoins are falling harder than the broader market, a direct reflection of liquidity concerns. As long as the 66% figure doesn’t fall, any rebound is just a mirage.
- Medium term: If Warsh really raises rates, it would break the narrative that the Fed will always “keep water flowing,” forcing crypto valuation logic to be rewritten. Conversely, if political pressure ultimately outweighs central bank independence, inflation expectations rise, and for BTC in the long run it becomes more of a hedge story. Both sides are slow variables—focus on the short term first.
My view
Bearish in the short term. The 66% rate-hike probability isn’t noise; it’s market consensus. $80,000 above is a clear resistance zone. If $76,000 below breaks, sentiment could deteriorate rapidly. ETH is weaker—$2,400 is the key support. Before a rate hike is actually implemented, don’t expect a major move; drifting lower in a range is the baseline scenario. Key risk: If Trump forces a personnel change or manages to successfully apply strong pressure, the rate-hike expectations could reverse overnight, rendering the bearish thesis invalid.
🎯 Forward-looking impact
- Asset: BTC / ETH
- Bias: Negative 📉 Forecast decline
- Time horizon: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
$SOL
⚠️ Not investment advice
After the Fed leadership change, the market is actually betting on a rate hike, putting downward pressure on BTC at $78,348 through liquidity tightening.
According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of an FOMC rate hike has already climbed above 66%. Meanwhile, Trump again publicly pressured the Fed from the Oval Office, demanding that it lower borrowing costs. In plain terms: the president wants cheaper money, while the incoming Fed chair, Warsh, is seriously considering raising rates. The two sides are pulling in opposite directions, and the market has cast its votes with real money—betting on a hike, not a cut.
One-sentence translation: The market doesn’t believe Trump can call the shots; money is already being priced for a “more expensive dollar.”
Impact on the market
- Short term: Rate-hike expectations = tighter dollar liquidity, and risk assets take the hit first. BTC is slipping sideways around $78,348, down 0.12%; ETH $2,454.86 is down 0.39%; SOL is down more than 1%—altcoins are falling harder than the broader market, a direct reflection of liquidity concerns. As long as the 66% figure doesn’t fall, any rebound is just a mirage.
- Medium term: If Warsh really raises rates, it would break the narrative that the Fed will always “keep water flowing,” forcing crypto valuation logic to be rewritten. Conversely, if political pressure ultimately outweighs central bank independence, inflation expectations rise, and for BTC in the long run it becomes more of a hedge story. Both sides are slow variables—focus on the short term first.
My view
Bearish in the short term. The 66% rate-hike probability isn’t noise; it’s market consensus. $80,000 above is a clear resistance zone. If $76,000 below breaks, sentiment could deteriorate rapidly. ETH is weaker—$2,400 is the key support. Before a rate hike is actually implemented, don’t expect a major move; drifting lower in a range is the baseline scenario. Key risk: If Trump forces a personnel change or manages to successfully apply strong pressure, the rate-hike expectations could reverse overnight, rendering the bearish thesis invalid.
🎯 Forward-looking impact
- Asset: BTC / ETH
- Bias: Negative 📉 Forecast decline
- Time horizon: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
$SOL
⚠️ Not investment advice
