$SPY opened Tuesday at $762.01, down 0.66%. First day of September continues August's selloff pattern. The $760 cliff sits 0.3% below — same accelerator that's held five times in August.
The gamma surface rebuilt over the weekend. GEX at -$1.40B, deepest reading since pre-NVDA week. Every strike from $760 to $766 is negative gamma. $762 at -$79M sits right at price. $760 at -$267M is the cliff — two dollars down.
But the flow tells a different story. Premium at 76.4% call, highest call percentage heading into a selloff morning in the entire series. Net +$470M. Institutions aren't selling into September. They're buying the dip. Engine flat at -1.1M — no mechanical selling pressure. The decline is structural positioning, not directional conviction.
IV skew flat at +0.07%. No expansion, no repricing. The options market is calm while price tests the range bottom.
Support stack underneath:
$760.52 bull flag stop
$751.72 falling wedge breakout (1.4% below)
$745 dark pool cost basis (2.3% below)
$708.87 wedge invalidation (7.0% below)
Four independently sourced layers, all tested during July's selloff. The architecture is deep.
The $762-$779 range that's held for three weeks is being tested at the bottom again. Same cliff, same level, sixth test. The gamma surface is doing the work. The money disagrees with the price action.
$766 flip. $762 price. $760 cliff. $751 breakout floor. $779 target. September begins. The range holds. The test continues.
The gamma surface rebuilt over the weekend. GEX at -$1.40B, deepest reading since pre-NVDA week. Every strike from $760 to $766 is negative gamma. $762 at -$79M sits right at price. $760 at -$267M is the cliff — two dollars down.
But the flow tells a different story. Premium at 76.4% call, highest call percentage heading into a selloff morning in the entire series. Net +$470M. Institutions aren't selling into September. They're buying the dip. Engine flat at -1.1M — no mechanical selling pressure. The decline is structural positioning, not directional conviction.
IV skew flat at +0.07%. No expansion, no repricing. The options market is calm while price tests the range bottom.
Support stack underneath:
$760.52 bull flag stop
$751.72 falling wedge breakout (1.4% below)
$745 dark pool cost basis (2.3% below)
$708.87 wedge invalidation (7.0% below)
Four independently sourced layers, all tested during July's selloff. The architecture is deep.
The $762-$779 range that's held for three weeks is being tested at the bottom again. Same cliff, same level, sixth test. The gamma surface is doing the work. The money disagrees with the price action.
$766 flip. $762 price. $760 cliff. $751 breakout floor. $779 target. September begins. The range holds. The test continues.
