Oil prices have risen this wave—not because demand suddenly strengthened, but because supply risk has been repriced again.
After a month of calm in the U.S.-Iran conflict, it flared up again: U.S. forces struck rocket positions on the Larak Island, Iran retaliated, and Trump said he would “hit them hard.” Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz saw a sudden drop, putting further pressure on global seaborne oil transport, roughly 1/5 of the total.
The conflict has lasted more than half a year. Some production capacity in the Middle East has been damaged and is hard to restart; global inventories have been drained, and U.S. strategic reserves are also on the low side. OPEC+ talks about increased output on paper, but actual exports are still being held back.
With Brent back above $90, the essence is this: the buffer has thinned, and the geopolitical premium is back. If negotiations make progress, markets will loosen; if the conflict escalates again, it will...
$BTC
$CL
After a month of calm in the U.S.-Iran conflict, it flared up again: U.S. forces struck rocket positions on the Larak Island, Iran retaliated, and Trump said he would “hit them hard.” Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz saw a sudden drop, putting further pressure on global seaborne oil transport, roughly 1/5 of the total.
The conflict has lasted more than half a year. Some production capacity in the Middle East has been damaged and is hard to restart; global inventories have been drained, and U.S. strategic reserves are also on the low side. OPEC+ talks about increased output on paper, but actual exports are still being held back.
With Brent back above $90, the essence is this: the buffer has thinned, and the geopolitical premium is back. If negotiations make progress, markets will loosen; if the conflict escalates again, it will...
$BTC
$CL
