GDX is down 4.417% over the past 24 hours, and the current price is 95.87. Combined with the latest assessment of Trump’s tariff policies, this drop is not a coincidence.
According to predictions from taxfoundation.org, Trump’s overall tariffs would reduce long-term GDP by 0.4%, lower the capital stock by 0.3%, and could erase 345,000 full-time jobs. These are not small numbers. Wikipedia, in its review of the 2025–2026 U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade war, also clearly noted that once tariffs took effect, the U.S. stock market fell directly—retailers and automakers were hit first. As a gold-mining stock ETF, GDX’s constituent companies are mostly asset-heavy and globally operating mining firms. Higher supply-chain costs and uncertainty arising from global trade tensions directly damage their earnings expectations and valuations.
The funding rate, 0.00078647, is positive, meaning longs are paying shorts while the price is falling. This is the classic setup for longs being trapped and adding to positions. The bullish camp hasn’t exited yet, but the price is already moving downward; they’re paying funding costs while watching unrealized losses widen. If this sentiment persists, any subsequent price rebound could become a window for long liquidation or even a squeeze, which would instead increase downside pressure.
The strongest counterargument is: the market has already Price-in the negative impact of tariffs, and Trump’s policies still have uncertainties. For example, a single-source report from lufkindailynews.com shows that as late as late August, he was still listening to negotiations proposals from Mexico and Canada, suggesting that the timing of tariff implementation could be slower. If GDX can find strong support and stabilize in the 92–95 range, my short thesis would face a challenge.
My criteria for invalidation are very straightforward: if the GDX price strongly breaks out and holds above 98.5, it would mean that buying pressure has overwhelmed the current macro-negative narrative, and I would admit my mistake and close the position.
So, my trading plan is to short GDX.
**Direction: Short**
**Leverage: 3x**
**Stop-loss: 98.5**
**Take-profit: First target 92.0; if it breaks below, look to 88.0**
**Position size: Medium (10% of total funds)**
If you’re aggressive: enter a short right at 95.8, betting that tariff-related negatives will intensify. If you’re more cautious: wait for a rebound toward 97, then open the short to improve the risk/reward.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #GDX
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?
According to predictions from taxfoundation.org, Trump’s overall tariffs would reduce long-term GDP by 0.4%, lower the capital stock by 0.3%, and could erase 345,000 full-time jobs. These are not small numbers. Wikipedia, in its review of the 2025–2026 U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade war, also clearly noted that once tariffs took effect, the U.S. stock market fell directly—retailers and automakers were hit first. As a gold-mining stock ETF, GDX’s constituent companies are mostly asset-heavy and globally operating mining firms. Higher supply-chain costs and uncertainty arising from global trade tensions directly damage their earnings expectations and valuations.
The funding rate, 0.00078647, is positive, meaning longs are paying shorts while the price is falling. This is the classic setup for longs being trapped and adding to positions. The bullish camp hasn’t exited yet, but the price is already moving downward; they’re paying funding costs while watching unrealized losses widen. If this sentiment persists, any subsequent price rebound could become a window for long liquidation or even a squeeze, which would instead increase downside pressure.
The strongest counterargument is: the market has already Price-in the negative impact of tariffs, and Trump’s policies still have uncertainties. For example, a single-source report from lufkindailynews.com shows that as late as late August, he was still listening to negotiations proposals from Mexico and Canada, suggesting that the timing of tariff implementation could be slower. If GDX can find strong support and stabilize in the 92–95 range, my short thesis would face a challenge.
My criteria for invalidation are very straightforward: if the GDX price strongly breaks out and holds above 98.5, it would mean that buying pressure has overwhelmed the current macro-negative narrative, and I would admit my mistake and close the position.
So, my trading plan is to short GDX.
**Direction: Short**
**Leverage: 3x**
**Stop-loss: 98.5**
**Take-profit: First target 92.0; if it breaks below, look to 88.0**
**Position size: Medium (10% of total funds)**
If you’re aggressive: enter a short right at 95.8, betting that tariff-related negatives will intensify. If you’re more cautious: wait for a rebound toward 97, then open the short to improve the risk/reward.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #GDX
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?