Oil prices surge and September rate-hike bets heat up—why is BTC still holding steady at $78,077? The strongest August since 2017 gives the confidence
BTC has withstood two major headwinds—oil prices and rate-hike expectations—posting what is likely the best August since 2017. It shows that selling pressure has finally been exhausted.
In theory, this is a classic double-hit: higher oil prices lift inflation expectations, and the market starts pricing in a September rate hike. Tightening liquidity expectations is historically the enemy of risk assets. But this time, BTC didn’t “fold.” It stays at $78,077.99, down just 0.43% over the past 24 hours, as it just delivered its best August performance since 2017. In plain terms, the available chips that could be dumped were already dumped. The remaining holders are now immune to macro noise.
The transmission path is simple: stronger rate-hike expectations → a firmer USD and rising U.S. Treasury yields → usually liquidity is pulled from risk assets. But BTC didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting that crypto’s own liquidity backdrop (ETF absorption, ample in-market turnover) offsets macro pressure.
Market impact
- Short term: Not falling despite negative factors is the strongest bullish signal. Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is the next “decider.” If the data shows employment cooling, the probability of a September rate hike could drop, and BTC may break higher directly. Only if the data runs hot is there a real risk of a pullback.
- Medium term: The rate-hike cycle nearing its end, combined with the post-halving supply contraction, has historically been favorable for BTC. If August’s strength carries into September, institutional capital’s re-entry pace may accelerate.
My view
I’m clearly bullish. The double headwinds couldn’t move the market—this indicates the sell-off has run out. The bid support around $78,077.99 has already been proven. There is only one risk: if Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are extremely strong and the odds of a September hike spike, BTC could retest a support level. But as long as the August low area isn’t broken, every retracement is basically bulls “shuffling the deck.” ETH at $2,460.12 also stabilizes in sync (+0.50%), and the correlation structure looks healthy.
One-line translation: Exhausted bad news isn’t actually bad news—BTC’s best August since 2017 proves it.
🎯 Impact outlook
- Asset: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bullish 📈 Forecast to rise
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
#Macroeconomics
⚠️ Not investment advice
BTC has withstood two major headwinds—oil prices and rate-hike expectations—posting what is likely the best August since 2017. It shows that selling pressure has finally been exhausted.
In theory, this is a classic double-hit: higher oil prices lift inflation expectations, and the market starts pricing in a September rate hike. Tightening liquidity expectations is historically the enemy of risk assets. But this time, BTC didn’t “fold.” It stays at $78,077.99, down just 0.43% over the past 24 hours, as it just delivered its best August performance since 2017. In plain terms, the available chips that could be dumped were already dumped. The remaining holders are now immune to macro noise.
The transmission path is simple: stronger rate-hike expectations → a firmer USD and rising U.S. Treasury yields → usually liquidity is pulled from risk assets. But BTC didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting that crypto’s own liquidity backdrop (ETF absorption, ample in-market turnover) offsets macro pressure.
Market impact
- Short term: Not falling despite negative factors is the strongest bullish signal. Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is the next “decider.” If the data shows employment cooling, the probability of a September rate hike could drop, and BTC may break higher directly. Only if the data runs hot is there a real risk of a pullback.
- Medium term: The rate-hike cycle nearing its end, combined with the post-halving supply contraction, has historically been favorable for BTC. If August’s strength carries into September, institutional capital’s re-entry pace may accelerate.
My view
I’m clearly bullish. The double headwinds couldn’t move the market—this indicates the sell-off has run out. The bid support around $78,077.99 has already been proven. There is only one risk: if Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are extremely strong and the odds of a September hike spike, BTC could retest a support level. But as long as the August low area isn’t broken, every retracement is basically bulls “shuffling the deck.” ETH at $2,460.12 also stabilizes in sync (+0.50%), and the correlation structure looks healthy.
One-line translation: Exhausted bad news isn’t actually bad news—BTC’s best August since 2017 proves it.
🎯 Impact outlook
- Asset: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bullish 📈 Forecast to rise
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
#Macroeconomics
⚠️ Not investment advice
